Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Scalia is dead.
Holy fucking shit. Scalia is dead. Honestly, I thought he would be the last hyper-conservative to go. I thought he would live to be 97 and still be on the court. For a man aged 79, he looked more like a man aged 65. I never thought he'd be the first SCOTUS death on Barack Obama's watch.
And what a death! Say what you will about his being evil, he was a giant of a man, larger-than-life in so many ways. Even Ruth Bader-Ginsburg gave him a touching obituary.
Conservatives will never be able to replace him.
Perhaps this is why they've gone completely ape-shit in a way nobody has ever seen before. They know that this is a loss that will inevitably swing the court to the left. Even if a Republican president were to somehow to select his replacement, they could never find another Scalia. They could never find someone so staunchly committed to ridiculous ideas who defends them with such eloquence. Never.
Even the wildest conservative justice is a moderate next to him.
And so we see the dying Republican machine digging in its heels like never before. Within hours of the announcement that Scalia was dead, leaders on Capital Hill and presidential candidates all said that Obama should not even think of naming a replacement. No, don't you dare, Mr. President! No! Don't do your job! Don't even try!
Because this signals the end. A moderate is enough to end the culture war. This is it. This is the end of the conservative court. This puts SCOTUS out of reach for conservatives. If Obama names one more, moderate or not, that's it. Kiss your conservative court goodbye. Kiss overturning Roe v. Wade goodbye. Forget about overturning anything having to do with ACA. Forget overturning gay marriage. It's over. The culture war has been won.
Of course, it's been won for quite some time now. It was won back in 2012. And in denial, pissed off republicans elected an even more obstructionist congress. But it's been done. They know it's over.
Oh, and by the way, the Republican race for president has not been going very well, either.
So, finally, here's my message, and it goes directly to the people of Nevada. Yes, you, you wonderful people of Sin City and Reno. Yes, you where everyone goes to do everything Republicans want to oppose. You who revel in the sex, drugs and gambling that they hate. It's up to you.
You need Hillary.
You see, a supreme court justice is far more likely to get through the Senate if Hillary can wield her might to help get it done. She can go to various legislators and say, "You vote against Barack's pick, and there will be consequences!" And she has the juice to do it, too! You can bet on it!
But she won't be able to do this if Bernie (and I still love Bernie) keeps the nomination of Hillary as an ongoing question. The longer Hillary remains doubtful, the longer it will be before Obama can get a SCOTUS pick through.
Yes, it's that simple.
And here, you see the real difference in ability between Hillary and Bernie. For all his merits, Bernie cannot go to legislators and say, "Look, Mr. ____, I've been in the D.C. Prayer Group with your wife for years. I know about your (insert scandal here), and I'm willing to use it! I'll undoubtedly be the next president. Are you sure you want to fuck with me?! You'll vote for Obama's pick, or else!"
Nope. And I doubt Bernie would ever do that, even if he had the intel.
So let's do the right thing, and give Hillary a sweeping victory in Nevada this Saturday, okay? Our next Supreme Court pick depends on it. And perhaps the next, and the next.
Oh, sure, the Republicans could conceivably gum up the works for a whole year in the hopes that they can get a conservative candidate into the White House and vote for their own man. But that's a long shot, and they know it. It's far more likely that they would stall for a year, lose the House, lose the Senate, and then only be able to sit back helplessly as liberal after liberal got named to the Supreme Court. They would watch Ruth Bader-Ginsburg retire. They would watch Anthony Kennedy Retire. They would watch Stephen Breyer retire. They would watch, powerless, as John Roberts and Clarence Thomas were the only ones left.
But while that outcome gives me warm fuzzies inside, it is not a done deal, yet, and Bernie could still upend everything without meaning to do so. The basic objections I have with Bernie still apply, none of which have to do with his policies. Aside from his inability to play dirty politics (and lack of firepower to do so), I still say that he's 1.) too old, 2.) too inexperienced, 3.) likely to get outspent by a ton without accepting superpac money, 4.) vulnerable to a "Red Scare" attack as opponents highlight the word 'socialist' on his resume, 5.) also vulnerable to an "atheist" attack, because as a secular Jew, he practices no particular religion.
Republicans have seen this. A lot of his support comes from conservative cross-over votes because they see Bernie as more beatable than Hillary. And they're right!
And now we have yet another Bernie liability I haven't yet spoken about, namely, the Bloomberg factor. Yes, Michael Bloomberg could toss his hat into the ring as an independent if Hillary doesn't win. That could conceivably mean a three-way split of the vote where Trump could win with only 34% of the electorate! Oh, the horror!
Bernie will adequately represent my desires and wishes as the Democratic nominee, should he win. If he does, I'll put my 100% effort into making sure he wins. But damn, what a gamble! I wish I didn't need to keep making my case for Hillary this way.
So are you hearing me, Nevada? Give Hillary a convincing win. Make it look like she's gotten through the storm. Let her help Obama give us a nice left-leaning moderate on the Supreme Court. You can do it! Yes, YOU!
Because otherwise, we could be waiting a long, long, time for our next justice.
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
I've gotten very little blow-back from my previous post regarding Bernie Sanders, and I suppose that's a good thing. But I do get a high degree of blow back on social media when I support Hillary. The sense that I'm getting from the Bernie Sanders camp is a kind of star-struck euphoria that's typical of a rock-star following. And while I don't for a second believe that Bernie has the kind of electoral magic that Barack Obama had in 2008, I do think that Bernie's followers are rather blind. I sense this, because my pro-Hillary posts are often met with vitriolic comments like, "anyone but Hillary," or simply, "Bye!" as if, by supporting the only candidate I feel has a realistic shot of winning, I've somehow disqualified my opinion from even being considered.
Look, I like Bernie. And for the hundredth time, if he's the nominee, he will have my full support. But I find it silly to be so completely blind about the man! He's human! And the downsides I pointed out last time still apply. He is:
1.) Highly vulnerable to a "Red Scare" attack.
2.) Quite likely to get outspent by a fuck-ton of money.
3.) Simply too old.
4.) Politically untried outside of relatively quiet Vermont.
In short, a vote for Bernie is a gamble. And a BIG one!
So let's go easy on the Hillary supporters, shall we? I mean, it's hardly irrational to believe that the woman who has been attacked, and attacked, and attacked, and is STILL standing, has every realistic expectation of enduring just a little bit longer!
And if you don't think she's gotten all the dirt on every politician through her weekly prayer groups with the other politicians' wives, you're naive! And an even bigger fool for thinking we don't need that kind of ammunition in the years to come. Don't casually dismiss that.
And STOP being so BLIND when it comes to Bernie! He's a nice old Jew who would make a nice old Jewish president. But I believe we don't need nice.
I believe we need a complete bitch who is feared!