Now Is NOT The Time To Tune Out!

It's astonishing. Ratings for CNN and MSNBC have tanked, while ratings for Fox News has stayed roughly the same, or ticked up slightly.

According to Forbes Magazine, MSNBC and CNN both had their ratings drop by half in the weeks post-election, a steep decline given that MSNBC was the #2 rated news service behind Fox News leading up to the election.

So what's going on?

I think for the most part, people who really know what's going on, namely those who follow balanced and legacy media, see the upcoming disaster, and can't watch. It's much the same as when someone sees a kid dash into the street before an oncoming car. One has to turn one's head and cover one's eyes so as to avoid seeing the bloody, tragic aftermath.

I'm certain there's also a fatigue factor. Those who hate Trump are just plain sick and damned tired of hearing about him. So it's easier to turn the television off and just peek at the headlines a little bit later.

I get it.

Or, there's this factor: people would just rather tune out. They know the situation is shit, they can't do anything about it, and so watching Wrongway-Peachfuzz-Trump select his clown-college Cabinet is simply too depressing.

Oh yeah, depression. That's certainly also a factor. I mean, Michael Moore (for example) hasn't done a single podcast since November 12th, when he did nothing for almost an hour except weep and play old-time records from his collection.

But now is NOT the time to tune out! Now is the time to be alert and at our best!

Hear me, Michael? Get up off your ass! Break time is over! Back to work! We need you!

We need to be alert and vigilant for the same reason one needs to be alert when one is trapped in a speeding bus that's out of control. Maybe the steering is broken, or some malevolent jackass has taken the wheel, but in that situation, the last thing you need to do is curl up into a fetal position and moan. You need to have eyes forward! Maybe you can't wrangle the steering wheel back in time, but you can sure as hell see when it's time to jump off, tuck & roll, and hopefully land safely!

Tuning out is not an option. Checking out might need to be, but we're nowhere near that point, yet!

In a previous blog post, I gave five reasons one could be hopeful. I've since thought of a sixth: As we can still see, Trump is in cognitive decline. There's a better-than-fair chance that he will be too bad-addled to do much damage to our nation's systems as he slowly loses his marbles. So long as he gets his little foibles, he won't bother with the big ones.

Let his Chief of Staff run things. That doesn't sound so bad. IF we pay attention, IF we are vigilant, we might just get through this only slightly singed.

So on your feet, people! Eyes front! The election was lost precisely because too few people knew what was going on.

No need to add yourself to that number!

Eric

**

On The Shooting Of Brian Thompson

There's no shortage of people commenting upon the shooting of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Liberal media outlets are correctly pointing out how much this emphasizes the many injustices caused by having an insurance-based healthcare system. Conservative media outlets are emphasizing how senseless this heinous act is, and that murder is not justifiable, no matter the motivation.

Oddly enough, both sides are correct for once. Also, not so oddly, both sides miss the main point.

Which means, of course, I have to say it. And I'll get to that main point in a minute. (Or you could just scroll down to the bold-print section. But I think you'll like what I have to say as a preamble.)

I won't attempt to justify the vigilante who shot Thompson. Murder is murder. I won't cheer the fact that (finally!) a corporate insurance bigwig paid the true cost of healthcare theft. But I can certainly understand the temptation. We've all been screwed over by the insurance industry one way or another. We all have friends or family who have suffered greatly trying to pay premiums and out-of-pocket expenses - and that's just the medical aspect of insurance. I, myself, recently saw a coworker get denied short-term disability after a major operation because his condition had been diagnosed more than three months earlier, thus making the condition "pre-existing." After his vacation and sick time expired, the poor man had to do without pay while he recovered, all because he missed the fine print.

In Thompson's mild defense, I highly doubt he even fully comprehended what his policies have been doing at ground-level. Corporate executives seldom do. They see charts and graphs, not people. They hire thousands of others to handle the individual injustices, and even those people never have to deal with those they screw over face-to-face. On an intellectual level, Thompson probably knew what he was doing, but the lives he affected weren't real for him.  The denied claims aren't allowed to be personal. They are merely claim #005797432, or #050776484. Not human beings, just numbers on a computer screen, and ones he didn't even see. One mouse click by an underling - done.

But it was certainly personal for the shooter.

Like most CEO's, Thompson was probably a conservative; probably in favor of gun rights; and almost certainly opposed to government assistance of any kind - all while playing golf with a handicap (because it's not welfare when it's golf, right?). We don't really know for sure at this point. But nobody is talking about the lax gun laws which made it possible. I kind of wish more people were. But if we can't even get outraged over classrooms full of kids getting gunned down, seemingly year after year, why should we be surprised if no one gets outraged when a major Republican party campaign donor gets shot and killed?

And here, finally, is the main point: For generations, we have been living with a healthcare system, even post-Obamacare, in which one major illness could potentially wipe out 1) one's life-savings, 2) inheritance, and 3) kids' college tuition fund, all in one blow! If we lived in a sane world, we would be rioting to change that every day; to stop being the one developed nation on the goddamned planet to not have a nationalized healthcare system for everyone! And not just those over the age of 65!

But the Right Wing Media Machine is so widespread, the institutionalized disinformation so prevalent, that we cannot even think our way out of this wet paper bag.

Yeah, yeah, I know, government screws up everything. I won't deny it. In fact, government screws up so badly that the only thing which screws up worse is a goddamned insurance company!

And yet here we are, trusting that one, even worse, totally evil thing. Because we're so scared of the word, "socialism," we would rather watch one's entire family go broke while lying on the gurney.

Nothing, nothing will snap us out of our mass delusion on this! If we haven't woken up by now, no mere shooting of a CEO will make any difference. We will all get shafted for hundreds of thousands of dollars, even with good health coverage, and still scream afterward, "socialized medicine is evil!"

It's enough to give me an ulcer. Or a heart attack. But I don't dare get either of those - it will cost too much!

Forgive me as I echo Steve Martin in the movie Roxanne, but I have a dream. It's a simple dream, really. It's not an impossible dream. It's not even much of a challenge, really. All I want in this country is that, if (heaven forbid) a citizen gets a major illness, that person doesn't end up screaming at the top of his lungs, "For god's sake, whatever you do, don't take me to the hospital! It'll ruin me!"

The manhunt for Thompson's killer goes on. I'm reluctantly impressed at the shooter's meticulous planning and (if you'll forgive the pun) execution. 

But real healthcare for all is proving to be even more elusive.

Eric

**

We Need A Better Defense Of Trans People

In the Right's perpetual campaign to bash liberals, anti-trans sentiment has been an extremely effective weapon. Voters who might otherwise agree with Democrats on just about every issue imaginable are nevertheless driven away from their own best interests when Republicans brand everyone to the left of themselves as being in favor of Drag Queen Story Hour, or trans female athletes competing in sports, or 13-year-olds receiving double mastectomies, or whatever other outrage-porn the Right Wing Media Machine decides to push next.

Nearly all political analysts have cited one particular commercial aired by the Trump campaign. That commercial played a clip of Kamala Harris saying that she supported gender-affirming care for inmates in California, and from there associated this with her wanting to give such care to illegal immigrant criminals. "Kamala is for they/them," the ad said. "Donald Trump is for us."

We laughed at this. But it worked.

Now, the response to the accusation was actually pretty solid. Federal prisoners were offered gender-affirming care during Trump's administration too. On Fox News, Kamala called this "throwing stones while living in a glass house." Also, under Kamala's term as California AG, only two inmates ever received such treatment. TWO. The total number of inmates to receive any such medical treatment as of December 2022 was only 20, and since ICE has a policy of incarcerating illegal immigrants as briefly as possible, it's almost certain that none of those was an illegal immigrant.

Yet none of this gained any traction. Nothing resonated. Part of this, of course, is because the Right Wing Media Machine has utterly taken over. But the other part is simply this:

We need a better defense of trans people!

I feel I'm uniquely qualified to bridge the gap on this particular issue. I'm a gen-X'er, part of that older generation which truly struggles with understanding the whole trans thing. What's more, I was once a fundamentalist Christian, ticketed for the ministry throughout my youth (though I've done a 180 since). Admittedly, the whole subject still seems a bit odd to me. Thus, as a self-described "Christian in recovery," I can clearly relate to how the anti-trans arguments resonate with believers. To their mindset, gender fluidity is utterly and monstrously alien. I understand how certain people, belonging to a community so traditional that short hair/skirts on women are still frowned upon, will almost certainly look upon "transality" (for want of a better word) as insane in the extreme, and those who accept it with tolerance, doubly so. For them, their pronouns are, "What the fuck are you even talking about?!" and "Get the hell away from me!"

So I fully comprehend how well the cards are stacked against us. We can't even try to mount an argument without automatically being seen with suspicion and revulsion.

But here's an attempt anyway:

Back in 2004, the issue that swept George W. Bush into a second term was opposition to gay marriage. It, like gender fluidity, filled conservatives with utter revulsion. But only several years later, by 2011, the issue was largely settled. The vast majority of Americans slowly came to accept gay marriage. Why? It wasn't just because of a 5 to 4 Supreme Court ruling which legalized it. It was because young people, many of whom had gay friends or were gay or bisexual themselves, rebelled against their elders. Usually, such social rebellion loses and the next generation settles into middle-aged capitulation. But this time, the youth movement won. The parents who rejected gay marriage came to accept it, based largely on wanting to accept their own children and their far-out opinions. Until, that is, those opinions stopped seeming quite so "far-out."

The trend lines are similar today, 20 years later. The youth of America, Millennials and Gen-Alpha mostly, are so strongly pro-trans that they will brook no argument on the matter. (Which is part of why Kamala didn't take a stronger mitigating stance regarding gender-affirming medical care. She knew if she offended the youth vote, she didn't stand a chance.) That insistence, like the one of 20 years before, will turn the tide of public opinion.

But that's tomorrow. For today, the argument is simply this:

Fundamentally, being trans is just like being gay.

Well, not just like being gay, naturally. But what I mean is, someone with gender dysphoria is born, not made. Yes, as humans, there is a spectrum. Yes, the nature-vs-nurture arguments abound. Yes, there are borderline cases. But for the most part, when a person's rebellion against their birth-gender is 1) consistent, 2) persistent, and 3) insistent, it's nature.

When society sees a trans person as having a condition on-par with being a gay person, the hard-won tolerance gay people have largely achieved comes along for the ride.

But my argument has a second part to it: We also need to finally loosen the fuck up! We'll never get anywhere if we regard those with an innate revulsion towards trans people as nothing but fools and morons. That kind of attitude never convinced anyone of anything. Indeed, it will just entrench the opposition further.

I'll use myself as an example, here. You see, I really don't know what to do yet about the problem of female trans athletes competing in sports. I freely admit I'm still trying to find a good solution to that one. (If I find one, I'll let you know.) But I've encountered so much blowback for this temporary middle-ground that I truly wonder about my friends on the Political Left. Can't I even take some time to process?

We'll never get anywhere if we can't even have a discussion.

Or then there's this one, already almost 10 years old: Back in 2015, on the podcast version of this blog (which I might resurrect someday, who knows?), I made a seemingly low-key joke about Caitlyn Jenner. My wisecrack at the time was, now that Bruce is Caitlyn, she's a woman over the age of 60. And as we all know, the media just doesn't talk about celebrity women over the age of 60. Therefore, to be truly fair to Caitlyn as a woman, the media must completely shut up about her.

That was reasonably funny. I got a few laughs. But I also got so much blowback about it that I'm still stunned. Apparently, Caitlyn has been the brunt of so many trans jokes that the pro-trans side drew a line in the sand: No joke about her, no matter how low-key, was even allowed to be funny. On the one hand, I see their point.

On the other hand, we will NEVER win any election again with an attitude like that!

So that's my take: Use the trans-like-gay angle as a jiu-jitsu move, using its weight to pull the opposition over to our side.

That, and don't treat people like absolute dirt for having a contrary opinion.

But that should go without saying.

Don't agree? Change my mind.

Eric

**

Why Biden's Pardon Of Hunter Makes Sense

So Joe Biden has given a presidential pardon to his son Hunter, in spite of saying numerous times that he would not do so.

Yeah, it's a flip-flop. A broken promise. And a bit of naked nepotism, too. But I think it makes perfect sense. Here's why:

To hear Biden's own reasons, he said, “I believe in the justice system, but as I have wrestled with this, I also believe raw politics has infected this process and it led to a miscarriage of justice.”

Interestingly, that is precisely the same reason Trump will give when pardoning January 6th rioters, various other toadies, and himself.

Except that whereas Biden's complaints are legitimate, Trump's are bogus.

But that's beside the point. Biden, like many of us, knows that a world of abuse is coming. Trump will abuse his powers for revenge and personal gain as much as he is able, and given his cabinet nominations, it's clear that he wants to maximize that abuse. There will be hurt, there will be pain, and there will be chaos.

And in that coming chaos, the only thing that will be left that will truly matter to Joe Biden is an old man's undying love towards his son.

So yeah, I don't blame him. Trump is about to break all sorts of promises. That's what he does, and what he's always done. So one more broken promise by Biden really doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of the corruption which is about to dominate the White House.

I only hope he also gives a blanket pardon do anyone else Trump deems an "enemy of the state" as a means of blunting the upcoming abuse of the justice system.

Eric

**

What Was The "Little Secret" Trump Had With Mike Johnson?

With so many families getting together over Thanksgiving weekend, there will undoubtedly be a lot of discussion about politics.

And a lot of arguing, I expect.

Not like anyone really needs more fodder for discussion, but here's a really juicy tidbit of a question that families with that in-your-face-about-Trump uncle (and let's face it, there aren't many families who don't have at least one of those) will appreciate:

Back on October 27, during the now infamous rally at Madison Square Garden, Trump said that he and Mike Johnson had a "little secret." He promised to tell what it was after the election.

Well, the election is over. So what the hell was it?

Only two days afterward (which is, you know, before the election was over), Mike Johnson tried saying that it was a tactic being used to "get out the vote." Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested something very similar, saying that it referred to the "countless telerallies reaching millions of Americans across the country in key regions that also helps bolster Republicans in congressional races."

Well, maybe.

Certainly it's no secret that the Trump campaign had a program to target disaffected male voters, ask them what specifically they didn't like about the Biden administration, and then target that. It apparently was a very effective tactic. But was this the real secret?

We may never know what it was, because after Mike Johnson broke Trump's promise on his behalf and gave an explanation well before the election, Trump has refused to comment on it after the election, breaking his promise directly.

What was that "little secret?"

I don't have a good answer for you. It could range anywhere from Musk's takeover of Twitter, to cyber-fraud, to undermining the certification of the vote at the State level.

But the speculation about it should make the potatoes and gravy go down a little easier as that crazy uncle struggles to come up with an explanation.

Eric

**

Biden Can End Ukraine's War Now (And Should!)

Ukraine seems headed to defeat. At the very least, it faces a Trump-sponsored settlement that gives Russia complete control over much of the eastern territories, if not all of them. At the worst, Trump backs Putin as Russia drives their forces straight into Kyiv and takes over the whole country.

I'm sure that's part of why Biden finally allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles built in the U.S. To be sure, Russia sending North Korean troops into Ukraine certainly didn't help matters, either.

But here's the thing: I think Biden should use these last two months to really get tough with Russia and force a complete withdrawal from Ukraine altogether - before Trump even gets sworn in. If Biden acts now, it's very possible. Once done, we fast-track Ukraine into NATO, and then there's nothing Trump can do about it.

Well, except maybe back out of NATO altogether, but that's a travesty for another day.

"But wait!" you might ask, "If Biden gives Putin an ultimatum, won't that risk sparking a nuclear war?"

I don't think so. Here's why:

When we were about to send financial aid to Ukraine, Putin threatened the possibility of nuclear retaliation. We sent aid anyway, and nothing happened.

When we were about to send ordinance to Ukraine, Putin threatened the possibility of nuclear retaliation. We sent ordinance anyway, and nothing happened.

When we were about to send tanks to Ukraine, Putin threatened the possibility of nuclear retaliation. We sent tanks anyway, and nothing happened.

When we were about to send jet planes to Ukraine, Putin threatened the possibility of nuclear retaliation. We sent planes anyway, and nothing happened.

Putin again threatened the possibility of nuclear retaliation if Ukraine ever fired U.S.-made long-range missiles into Russia. Well, Ukraine just did.

And again, nothing happened.

At this point, calling Putin's bluff is almost a given. He knows damned well that when the first nuke hits Kyiv, the second nuke will hit Moscow.

He won't escalate. Because he can't.

It's time for Biden to move the 5th Fleet into the Black Sea, and say to Putin, "All right, jackass, you've had your fun, now get your goddamned troops back over onto your side of the border - NOW! INCLUDING Crimea!"

After all, Putin can't even defeat Ukraine. What on earth would make him think he could defeat Ukraine AND us?

The poetic tragedy of it all is that Biden has the will to do this, but probably not the guts.

Trump has the guts to do this, but definitely not the will.

Who knows? Maybe Biden will decide to leave it all on the field on the way out.

Then again, my optimism has taken a hit since November 5th.

Eric

**

Twitter Derangement Syndrome

Here's a thought shared by many:

Social media is driving us all insane.

And by "insane," I don't mean a little neurotic. I mean foaming at the mouth, bat-shit, nucking futz!

According to Tristan Harris, the man behind the landmark documentary, "The Social Dilemma," there are entire programs of study, at Stanford, at Harvard, at many other prestigious universities, wholly devoted to the study of what grabs human attention, and keeps it.

Not classes. Programs.

These schools of thought have been training the corporate leaders which drive our social media algorithms to gear them solely toward increasing engagement. The algorithms behind Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, and many others, don't give a damn about what drives the engagement. They only care that the user is engaged, and that such engagement increases. If it increases due to right-wing extremism, or conspiracy mongering, or religious zealotry, or anger, or fear, or outright lies, all of that in ancillary to the machine that drives the increased engagement. The user is interacting more - fuck everything else.

Your commitment to the social media is all that matters.

Nowhere is the impact of this more evident than the cesspool that Twitter/X has become. Elon Musk bought it up, lost a crap-ton of money on it, but gained an outsized influence upon one of the biggest social media platforms. It paid off, in as much as Musk was (arguably) able to influence the 2024 election more than anyone realized. It goes without saying that his opinions, forced upon all users whether they liked it or not, were not of the pre-Trump quality that we came to expect from Elon Musk before.

(I mean, let's be honest: Electric cars, space exploration... these are not the sorts of things pursued by retrograde Christian-nationalist dipshits marching people back towards the Middle Ages. Elon Musk once had clout among those who enjoyed watching TED and the Big Bang Theory. How the mighty have fallen...)

But this happened because first Elon Musk himself was sucked in by Twitter algorithms. They radicalized him. And when the Babylon Bee had its account suspended on Twitter, he hauled off and bought the entire platform.

In other words, Elon himself so loved the thing which poisoned his mind, he took over the whole thing. Just so that his favorite radicalization memes wouldn't get blocked from his eyes.

Or yours.

Social media has been very effective at spreading a particularly pernicious idea, that "Trump Derangement Syndrome," (a.k.a. "TDS") is actually the derangement caused by the rejection of Trump, rather than the purely sane reaction to someone so dastardly. Such a purely upside-down mindset could only have been promulgated by the unholy alliance between the Right-Wing Media Machine, and the increasingly powerful forces of social media.

But I have a radical proposal regarding "TDS." Given that right-wing radicalization is so often brought about by social media, "TDS" should be re-branded as "Twitter Derangement Syndrome."

(Yeah, yeah, I know, it's actually "X." But no. Just.... no.)

We may not be able to fully undo all the damage that social media has done to the conscience of the general public. But we can do one small thing to reclaim what we've lost down that hellhole. We can at least re-designate "TDS" as "Twitter Derangement Syndrome."

It seems the least we can do.

And it's a lot closer to the truth.

Eric

**

Stop Saying "Mandate!"

I said this back in 2004 when George W. Bush won reelection (and I wish I'd had a blog back then so I could cite it):

51% is not a mandate!

Like in 2004, Republicans won consistently, but by the skin of their teeth. Ohio, not Pennsylvania, was the all-important swing state back then, and Bush took it by a narrow margin - narrow enough that John Kerry didn't concede until a few days after the election, when it finally became clear that Bush's narrow margin wasn't going to shrink appreciably.

Back then, just like now, Republican advocates on all the talking-heads shows were saying "mandate!" "mandate!" as if they'd somehow won by a huge margin.

Except they didn't. They squeaked by. They just did so homogenously.

The most recent example of someone who actually had a mandate is Barack Obama in 2008. He won many states no Democrat had in decades, and was handed commanding majorities in both the House and Senate. But on balance, despite the huge Electoral College margin and Congressional margin, Obama only had 53% of the vote in 2008. He couldn't truthfully claim a mandate, though some did.

Ronald Reagan certainly had a mandate in 1984. When he defeated Walter Mondale, he won most U.S. states and had nearly 59% of the popular vote, with 97.6% of the Electoral College.

Now THAT, my friends, is what a mandate truly looks like. Nowhere near, and nothing like, what Trump eeked by on.

Richard Nixon had a mandate in 1972, with 60% of the popular vote and 96.7% of the Electoral College.

Are you paying attention, class?

But not long before, the Democrats were handed a mandate in 1964 as Lyndon Johnson won 61.1% of the popular vote, and 96.7% of the Electoral College. Dwight Eisenhower had a mandate in 1956 with 57.4% of the popular vote. Franklin Delano Roosevelt had a mandate in 1936 when he won 60.8% of the vote.

As of this writing, Donald Trump only won 49.98% of the vote. Not even cracking 50%! Kamala Harris got 48.4% of the vote. The rest voted for someone else.

So don't give me this "mandate" bullshit! More than half of all voters chose someone else! If the American people wanted to give Trump a mandate, he would have gotten at least 55% or higher.

Eric

**

It Was Never Biden's Inflation

What causes inflation?

It's been abundantly clear, even before the debacle which was this past election, that voters really don't know the answer to this question. Instead, they blame whoever happens to be in the Oval Office at the time the inflation happens, which is neither fair nor informed. So, as a recap, let me just remind everybody out there what exactly happened to drive prices up in 2021.

It had nothing to do with Biden.

It had everything to do with Trump, and his mismanagement of the Covid crisis, compounded by Vladimir Putin's war with Ukraine, and a whole host of other mishaps Biden had no control over.

People generally don't know this, but a president has very little control over an economy. The Federal Reserve has more direct control through use of interest rates, and that's rather like trying to steer a barge with a single oar.

To give you a good sense of how the Trump/Putin inflation happened we need to review economics 101 to see how exactly inflation works. Then we will go over a timeline of how the events transpired to drive up prices.

Causes of inflation:

Supply shock - When something disrupts supply, such as a natural disaster, or foreign government intervention (war, embargo, etc.).

Demand shock - Something triggers high demand, such as when a central bank lowers interest rates too much, or a government raises spending too high.

Cost-push - When the cost of producing goods and services rises, forcing businesses to raise their prices.

Demand-pull - When the demand for goods and services in the economy exceeds the economy's ability to produce them.

There are others, of course, but those are the main ones.

Now let's see these in action. You can follow along with the following graph showing how inflation transpired during this time period. (Source, Statista. Click here to see.)

Stimulus Round 1 (Trump), March, 2020 - The CARES Act is passed in Washington. Millions of Americans received stimulus checks, $1,200 per taxpayer and $500 per child. That, and/or PPP loans. But due to the Covid shutdown, this money was either used for the sustaining of businesses or personal finances, or saved for later. Since those who saved it couldn't really go out and spend it anyway, that happened for many Americans. Inflation wasn't affected - yet.

Stimulus Round 2 (Trump), December 2020 - The Consolidated Appropriations Act is passed. $600 per taxpayer plus $600 per child. Again, this money is used either for basic upkeep or saved.

Also, December 2020, Pfizer and Moderna receive FDA approval for their Covid-19 vaccines. Emergency vaccinations begin in earnest for first-responders.

January/February 2021, vaccine approval is granted for anyone in a food-related industry. (Here's where I got mine, as I was employed at a manufacturer of spices and supplements at the time.)

February 19, 2021 - Sudden cold snap reaches as far south as Texas. Food and fuel shortages result. Gas prices begin to rise.

March 2021 - More and more people get vaccinated. The pandemic feels like it's ending.

**Note: Here's where people stop hunkering down and start spending some of their saved money. Demand pressure goes way up.

Stimulus Round 3 (Biden), March 2021 - The American Rescue Act is passed. $1,400 per taxpayer, $1,400 per child.

Demand increases, but supply is short due to the lockdown causing businesses to pare back. They begin to respond, but it's too little, too late. Inflation rises to 4%.

**Note: This is both Demand-Shock and Demand-Pull. Admittedly, on this part, Biden has a portion of blame, since Trump did the first two stimulus bills, and Biden did this third one. The extra stimulus was probably too steep and too late in light of the Covid crisis beginning to ebb. But the dollar amounts weren't really significant for long-term inflation. That came later.

April, 2021 - With many Americans now vaccinated, people are hopeful for a return to normal. They begin going out more, and spending more. But supply chains are still limited. China's zero-Covid policy is still in place, and businesses are still trying to ramp back up to normal.

More buyers, less goods to buy. So naturally, right around here, inflation rises to 5.4%. It hovers there for several months. And there it would have stayed or come down, except for what happened next.

May, 2021 - A Coronavirus surge tears through India, causing manufacturing delays across a wide spectrum of industries.

June, 2021 - West Coast wildfires rage so widely that smoke changes the color of the sky in Chicago and Cleveland. This further complicates supply chains and prices.

July 29, 2021 - The Ever Given container ship becomes wedged in the Suez Canal, causing huge supply chain disruptions globally.

August 2021 - Hurricane Ida hits the southern coast, closing ports and further disrupting fuel and supply chains.

August, 2021 - the Meishan terminal in Ninbo, China, a major shipping center, shuts down for two weeks. The Shanghai Airport terminal also shuts down, further causing shipping delays and price increases.

** And all of these things add up to Supply-Shock and Cost-Push. With supply chains being disrupted right before stores began prepping for the peak seasons of Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, prices really start to climb.

September, 2021 - As China's shipping re-opens, and American ports struggle to find workers, a huge backlog of container ships crowds up the Pacific along the west coast.

October 1, 2021 - Vietnam ends it's weeks-long shutdown. Goods long delayed begin to flood out of port, further complicating the backlog in the U.S.

February, 2022 **The BIG One** - Vladimir Putin sends troops into Ukraine, kicking off a war which hasn't concluded yet. Because Ukraine is one of the largest suppliers of grain, this significantly impacts grocery prices.

March, 2022 - In response to Putin's war in Ukraine, huge sanctions are levied against Russia. Gas pipelines from Russia to Europe are shut down, leading to a massive energy crisis, especially for Germany, which was heavily dependent upon Russian gas. The economic impact on global prices is huge.

** More Supply-Shock and Cost-Push. By July of 2022, inflation has soared to 9%. I call this the "Putin Peak," because that inflation ties directly to Putin's stupid war. But honestly, given how severe the other supply chain shocks were, I'm surprised inflation wasn't much, much worse. It's a credit to Biden to have contained it so well.

From February to June of 2023 - inflation comes way down, eventually settling at around 3.5%. After that, it gradually ticked downward until it reached today's low of 2.1%.

WITH Putin's war in Ukraine still raging on! WITH Israel retaliating against the attacks on October 6, 2023, with an all-out war on Gaza!

Biden gets zero credit.

So, there's your instant replay. The two biggest factors in this are 1) Trump's mismanagement of the Coronavirus pandemic, and 2) Putin's war in Ukraine. Together with a bevvy of mishaps that were out of Biden's control, they are what was responsible for the inflation of 2021 & 2022. The fact that inflation remained low throughout 2023 and even lower in 2024 doesn't seem to have gotten anyone's attention at all.

Nearly two whole years of inflationary control. WITH two wars on!

In spite of this, Biden got all the blame. Trump, for all his clusterfucking, got the credit.

Because people didn't remember the clusterfucking. They remembered the stimulus checks.

That, and the Right-Wing Media Machine kept blasting falsehoods about everything from trans athletes to fake crime numbers for immigrants.

So don't ever let anyone tell you it was Biden's inflation. Biden did an incredible job in the face of some pretty damned steep obstacles.

History will record this, even if what passes for our current "news" media does not.

Eric

**

Right-Wing Media IS "Mainstream" Now

The Right-Wing Media Machine regularly rails against mainstream media, often calling it "lame-stream media," or even "the real fake news," as Sean Hannity often calls it.

Trouble is, that form of news is no longer "mainstream." Not even close.

Fox News currently occupies nearly 50% of all cable news viewership, according to Nielsen ratings. Which means everything else, CNN, MSNBC, Newsmax, OAN, all fits into that remaining half, and only one of those is ostensibly progressive-leaning. Newsmax and OAN carry roughly 9% of cable news viewership, meaning the right-wing side of biased news is only just shy of 60%. With CNN twisting in the wind like a weather vane, it's fair to say that two-thirds of cable news is now right-wing.

Newspapers are dead, with most of them having been bought up by oligarchs and hedge funds, stripped down to their barest essentials, and most of their reporters shown the door. We famously saw the Los Angeles Times and the Washington Post refuse to endorse Kamala Harris, not because the staff felt this was right, but because of owners' edict. Both publications suffered backlash, but the owners are rich enough not to care.

Radio? According to the Center for American Progress, a startling 91% of political talk radio is conservative-leaning.

Television? Forget it. Roughly 40% of all local television networks are owned by Sinclair, a right-leaning broadcast company. True, they've been looking to sell off about 30% of what they currently own, but they're still dominant. Right behind them is Nextstar Media Group, which owns nearly all the rest, and dominates all television media in general with roughly 70% of all television stations, local or otherwise.

And then came recently this report from CNN, showing how 40% of young voters, particularly young men, get their news from social media sources, most of which lean to the right. In particular, X.com and Joe Rogan were frequently cited as news sources.

In fact, I think we can safely say that when Elon Musk blew millions on buying Twitter, which seemed to be a horribly stupid waste of money, he was wasting all that cash to have an outsized effect on the 2024 election.

And it worked!

And yes, everybody of sound mind is currently leaving X.com. An "X-odus," if you will (I wish I'd been the one to come up with that). But, as frequently is the case among us liberals, it's too little, too late. And what's left of X.com will continue as an even more depraved right-wing conspiracy-theory-ridden hellhole than ever before.

And that's before factoring in all the other social and digital media outlets which are right-wing. Or, for that matter, factoring all the foreign propaganda (looking at you, Russia & China) which poisons the social media of even balanced platforms.

Let's face it, Kamala lost for precisely the reasons I outlined in my earlier blog post.

Two words: Institutionalized disinformation.

So we need to re-define our terms. "Mainstream media" must now be regarded as the media of the political right. "The liberal media" simply no longer exists. Frankly, it hasn't existed for a very long time. Everything else which has heretofore been regarded as "mainstream," must now assume a different name. Legacy media seems to be the term which is winning out. And most of it isn't even left-leaning. The bulk of it is just the balanced media; the responsible media.

There is no counterweight.

So we're basically fucked as far as media is concerned. The oligarchs came in, and took away freedom of speech by buying up all the free speech outlets they could, then filling our ears with outrage porn aimed at defaming the Left. There's no way we can fix this easily. And we can't re-balance the airwaves by simply re-launching Air America Radio (remember that one?), or somehow bolstering NPR, or turning to the quixotic podcasts done by Keith Olbermann and Thom Hartmann.

We need to pass some laws requiring balance!

I'm not advocating censorship, any more than it is censorship to require a food product to faithfully report a package's contents on its label. The law recognizes that if a food company mislabels its contents, the consumer who buys it could get seriously sick. We need a similar set of laws governing our news outlets, and for precisely the same reason.

No one should be able to mislabel propaganda as "news" anymore! That's simply fraud!

I look forward to the possibility that Fox News might get forced to change its name to "Fox Infotainment" or some such. Certainly, the likes of Hannity, Gutfeld, and others will continue to spew their liberal-hatred as much as they are able.

But at least they might do so with a little less legitimacy. With reduced artificial authority.

No more institutionalized disinformation! It is our #1 enemy and, assuming we ever get another shot, stopping it must be our #1 priority.

Eric

**

Don't Call RFK Jr A "Vaccine Skeptic"

I am a Skeptic.

I say this using a capital "S," because it is not just a self-description, it is a creed. I've been part of the Skeptic movement for over almost 30 years now, having joined it in 1997 shortly after the untimely death of my hero (and hopefully yours, too) Dr. Carl Sagan. I was a member of the Center for Scientific Inquiry (CSI) way back when it was still called "CSICOP" (the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims Of the Paranormal).

So it absolutely frosts me when everyone in the media keeps describing RFK Jr. as a "vaccine skeptic."

He is no such thing.

A Skeptic (capital "S") doesn't dismiss claims outright. A Skeptic investigates. A Skeptic confirms. Even if the claim is absurd, the Skeptic investigates anyway. If someone claims to have seen a UFO, the Skeptic will not simply dismiss it outright. He will look into it. He will likely find a much more rational explanation than our humble planet being visited by extraterrestrials, but he will at least take a look. Or at least count on the appointment of someone else (usually from Skeptical Inquirer magazine) to go take a look.

The classic example of this is Joe Nickell, who regularly made cable TV paranormal shows as the guy who looked into claims of haunted houses (back when cable TV was still a thing) and debunked them. Like the gang from Scooby Doo, he always found a human explanation rather than an actual ghost, but he never guffawed or ridiculed people for their beliefs. Instead he looked at the evidence, and found a natural rather than a supernatural reason for a seemingly ghostly encounter. In nearly all cases, the ghost-claimant acknowledged that Nickell was probably right.

Rejecting a claim outright with no investigation is not skepticism. It is cynicism.

In RFKJ's case, it is even worse than cynicism. RFKJ has taken a position of faith regarding vaccines. He ignores the mountains of evidence showing how vaccines are effective at preventing disease and instead embraces wild conspiracy theories which were debunked long ago. Such as claiming thimerosal, used in tiny amounts as a vaccine preservative, causes autism in children. He ignores that no vaccines administered to children under the age of 6 ever contains thimerosal, and hasn't done so for generations. He also ignores that thimerosal uses ethyl mercury, which the human body can expel in waste. Methyl mercury, an entirely different molecule, cannot be expelled from the body. RFKJ regularly confuses or conflates the two. What's more, any vaccine which contains thimerosal has it in only about 50 micrograms. For scale, that's roughly the equivalent of eating 2 cans of tuna.

I don't eat a lot of tuna, but I've certainly eaten a lot more than 2 cans' worth in my lifetime. I suspect you have, too.

RFKJ is no more a skeptic than a creationist is a "skeptic" regarding evolution, or a flat earther is a "skeptic" regarding our spherical planet. He is no more a "skeptic" than someone who denies we landed on the Moon in 1969, or that the Holocaust ever happened in Nazi Germany. These are conspiracy theories -- cults of the fantastical which prey upon those who are prone to jumping to conclusions.

In taking a position of faith regarding vaccine denialism, and founding an organization to promote and bolster his mad claims, he has literally made himself a cult leader.

So call him a denier. Call him a crackpot. Call him a fool for misusing his worm-eaten brain.

But please, stop calling him a "skeptic."

You soil the word each time you make that mistake.

Eric

**

Why Biden Met With Trump

A lot of people were incensed by the above photograph. Those who know Trump effectively wants dictatorial control see this as a betrayal. Why would Biden agree to shake this monster's hand?

I found this picture offensive, too. I mean, who has a roaring fireplace in 50-degree weather?

But here's where Biden's integrity and intelligence outshines many of us. He recognizes that a peaceful transfer of power will ensure less animosity between Trump and the Democratic Party. He knows that if Democrats are to get another shot at all, it will depend upon Trump not seeing all Democrats as enemies. It will depend upon him merely circumventing the process rather than destroying it.

I know, I know, it sounds very much like the "roll into a fetal-position ball and the bear will get bored with you and go away" sort of defense. It's admittedly weak sauce. I get it. But honestly, it's one of the few options we've got with a realistic shot at working.

In my earlier blog post, I pointed out that Trump may well leave the democratic process alone so long as he gets his own way - for now. This gives us a narrow lane of opportunity to prevent a complete slip into fascism. I know perfectly well that J.D. Vance will not be so magnanimous, which makes our situation even more precarious. Vance outright admitted he is a fan of dictatorial systems.

Which leads me to part 2 of this blog post. I normally ignore the various emails I get wanting me to send money to them. A lot of these so-called funding drives and/or petitions are scams. But this one especially drew my ire:

That is exactly the ONE thing we can't do!

This junk email came from the Progressive Turnout Project. DON'T sign their petition! DON'T give them any money! This petition is so stupid I can't even begin to say. 

1) We're getting this email NOW?! AFTER the goddamned election?! I know we liberals are great at swimming after the ship long after it's set sail, but damn!

2) Why the hell should we expel Trump (assuming that's even possible) just to supplant him with J.D. Vance?

Why exchange an incompetent, hopefully temporary, dictator with a more competent, permanent one?!

Hang in there, folks. These are precarious times where we have to navigate some very treacherous waters. We cannot afford any more stupid mistakes. The only way we survive is by outsmarting the opposition.

And possibly outlasting them, too.

We need to use all our defenses, whether they be kindness or camouflage.

Eric

**

The Next Big Lie

Responsible news sources called Trump's false claim that the 2020 election was stolen "The Big Lie." And so it was. In fact, it was just one of many lies designed to convince people that up is down, black is white, and day is night, grass is purple, and voting for a criminal rapist/racist is actually a good idea. But under Trump's pending neo-Grover-Cleveland era, there is a new Big Lie coming. You can feel it already starting in various right-wing media outlets, and it's going to be very easy to sell. At first.

The lie will go something like this: "You see? Liberals said Trump was going to be a dictator. But he's clearly not. Life goes on just like before. It was all paranoia."

And that argument will seem true - until suddenly it doesn't.

Because Trump will probably interfere with the midterms. And it's even more likely he will mess with the 2028 election, especially if a "blue wave" hits him hard in 2026.

If he's still alive, that is. As the oldest elected president in history (he is currently older than Biden was when he was elected) he could very well die in office. And then it's J.D. Vance, the person who was caught on video espousing pro-totalitarian, pro-dictator views, who will preside over the election interference.

And then our elections will have no more of a (small "d") democratic outcome than the elections in Russia do.

It will be at that point when we tell the disciples of right-wing media, "I told you so." But of course, if they haven't hearkened to reality by now, they certainly won't then. They'll pretend those elections are absolutely legit, even though we on the left, and the remaining free nations of the world, will know better.

What will we do then? I can only imagine. But it will likely have to be drastic.

The jackboots aren't coming any time soon. Tanks will not be rolling through our city streets right away. That will likely take years. The move toward totalitarianism will be slow, and many of us won't even notice the moment the "Miracle of Philadelphia" finally expires. But it will.

Unless Trump fumbles the football at the goal line, and We the People actually get another shot. I'm not counting on that, but I won't rule it out, either.

Watch for it. It's coming. The Big Lie 2.0.

Eric

**

Five Reasons To Hope

I've been rather doom-and-gloom in my posts lately. That's for good reason, of course, but always being negative doesn't do our collective mental health any good. So in this post, I thought I would do something positive and outline five reasons why we might have hope that democracy isn't quite dead yet. We may yet be able to snatch democracy from the jaws of fascism. (And if we do, we'd better make damned sure we don't blow our opportunity.)

Here are my five reasons. See if you agree:

1) Trump is utterly incompetent. We're seeing it already, as a transition team he should have had fully assembled way back in June or July has yet to name any but the most rudimentary of cabinet members, such as Chief of Staff. This is exactly the same mistake Trump made in 2016, and he never quite recovered from it. In fact, at no point during his first four years did Trump ever have a fully staffed cabinet, or diplomatic corps. There is a realistic chance that what saves democracy isn't the failure of those who defend it, but the ineptitude of those who would destroy it.

With Captain Wrongway Peachfuzz back at the helm, the one thing you can count on is a bevy of mistakes.

2) Because Trump won this election with an actual majority, he may not be tempted to subvert it in the future. Trump really and truly believes that he will always win. Twice now he has overcome being behind in the aggregate polling average up until the last possible minute, at which point he somehow manages to win. By winning an actual majority this time, he (and Vance, we hope) may come to believe that the vote will always go his way, and will therefore not attempt to subvert the electoral process in either 2026 or 2028.

You can count on a delusional man to maintain his delusions.

3) Biden can use these last remaining months to blunt Trump's future retribution. Perhaps he will give a blanket presidential pardon to all those Trump has named as enemies, preventing Trump from using the Justice Department to enact revenge. Perhaps he will enact other measures to blunt any future takeover or move towards totalitarianism. I very much hope he will, and it's something to watch for. Hell, I hope he pardons his son, Hunter, too. That would be a nice, parting kick to the Republican groin.

You can count on Biden in his final days, just as you could these past four years.

4) There will be a strong sense of betrayal which will play to our favor. The entire crossover vote will feel the pain of buyers' remorse as Trump's administration unfolds in a way other than what they expected. Muslims who voted for Trump or didn't vote altogether because they didn't like the Biden administration's approach to the genocide in Gaza will be shocked to see Gaza utterly destroyed to make room for new Jewish settlements. Young black men who voted for Trump in order to shake things up will find themselves dismayed as they and/or their friends fall victim to reinstated "stop and frisk" policies, racial profiling, and immunity for police brutality. White women who chose religion over a woman's autonomy will find themselves shocked by one news story after another of a woman dying of sepsis as doctors, too afraid of abortion bans to give the appropriate care which was needed in a timely fashion, end up waiting until the last possible minute, which proves to be too late for the patient. Latinos who voted for Trump will be shocked as their friends, and possibly even their relatives, are suddenly arrested and deported, despite many of them being documented.

You can count on customer complaints when you sell a phony product.

5) If the worst truly happens, and blue states are forced to secede from the Union, the majority of those within the MAGA echo-chamber will undoubtedly say, "Screw 'em! Let 'em go! We never liked those damned liberal states anyway! Good riddance!"

You can count on MAGA's irrational hatred of "woke liberals" to help prevent a Civil War.

Eric

**

White Rose Movement 2.0

There was a time when those whom we think of today as "the Founding Fathers," were doing something radical, and more than a little bit foolish.

In the late 1700's, to stand against the might and power of the British Monarchy was foolhardy, to say the least. But some brave men actually did. They had names which were well-off, but not particularly well-known. Names like Hamilton, Jefferson, Franklin, Payne, Washington, Hancock, and Madison.

And what they wrought was a democracy which lasted almost 250 years.

Until this past November 5th, that is.

But their boldness came at a true fulcrum point -- a moment in history when great Men (in the non-gendered sense) are either made, or fall. In the end, their gamble paid off, and they forged a great democracy. It didn't last forever, but it was the first of many to follow.

Now is such a time.

There was also a time when people stood up to the likes of Adolf Hitler within Nazi Germany. They knew they were risking their lives to do so. They knew the price of failure. But they chose to stand up for what was right and good anyway. They chose to fight.

Their anti-Hitler movement was known as the "White Rose" movement. Many within it died. But a good many others succeeded after Germany lost the war.

Now is such a time.

Now is the time for the likes of Oskar Schindler (of "Schindler's List" fame) to stand up and save lives.

Now is the time for the likes of Dietrich Bonhoeffer to stand up for human rights, just as Jesus Christ would have in such a situation.

Now is the time for "Tank Man" to stand up to the massacre of Tiannamen Square. Remember that news story? When a lone, Chinese man, armed with only a shopping bag, stood up to a line of tanks and shouted, "Why are you attacking us?!" That type of courage is needed right now.

And we should also remember another great man, Mahatma Ghandi, who, like our nation's founding fathers, stood up to the might of the British Empire -- and won.

In all these crises, those who stood up were not always the ones who were victorious.

But they were all remembered.

Now is that time. Now is OUR time. White Rose 2.0! Now is when we fight back against Trump and Trumpism, as all people of conscience must.

Now is when we succeed, or fail. We may not win. But in resisting, we will never lose.

Either way, we will be remembered.

Eric

**

A Message Of Hope For A Post-Democracy America

Well, I thought I was going to take a break from blogging, but...

Democracy has always had one, glaring flaw: that people have the power to vote for its own destruction. Last Tuesday, that's precisely what happened.

It's not Kamala's fault. Don't blame her. Sure, she had some missteps, mostly in not distancing herself from Biden enough and not speaking out enough for Gaza. But she ran a flawless campaign otherwise. As I've said before, in a sane world, she wins in a landslide. Trump, on the other hand, ran a reckless campaign, made one gaff after another, had one October surprise after another go against him, played to his twisted base instead of to the rational center, and somehow won anyway. No, this is not Kamala's fault. 

It wasn't "the economy, stupid." Not with inflation down to 2.1%, record job growth, and grocery prices slowly coming down. If Trump had presided over these economic numbers, he and all his followers would be bragging loud enough to rattle everyone's windows! Biden somehow gets zero credit.

No, the real problem, as I've been saying for years, is the Right-Wing Media Machine giving the illusion of legitimacy to utter falsehoods.

Two words: institutionalized disinformation. That's what did us in.

On the surface, the election seemed to have an air of democracy to it. The flawed Electoral College actually agreed with the popular vote totals for once (something we haven't seen for the Republican side since 1988). But here's the thing: There can be no true democratic choice if voters are being systematically and maliciously misled.

As I pointed out earlier, propaganda disguised as news IS election interference.

And that leads into a thorny question for political scientists everywhere: If the general public is fooled into thinking that day is night, up is down, back is front, and demented criminal rapists/racists somehow make good candidates, can there truly be a democratic choice? Or does institutionalized disinformation render the democratic process impossible?

I would argue it does. We just saw proof.

For a long time, we have been less a democracy and more an oligarchy. We have now, officially, slipped down to 100% oligarchy. Our votes were bought, because our news media was bought. And now we face the likelihood of becoming an outright dictatorship. Because roughly half of us were duped into thinking that was actually a good idea.

Because institutionalized disinformation, bought and paid for by the ultra-rich, drove us utterly insane.

So what do we do now? Cry in our beer? Wallow in depression? Wait for the Technological Singularity to come and save us? Flee to some other country while we still can?

No! HELL, no!

I will NOT give up! 

And most importantly, I will not SHUT up!

I intend to be at the vanguard of the last guardrail keeping Trump in check. I will endeavor to be a policy maker within the Democratic Party, seeing as how the current leadership is obviously too incompetent to target the primary problem. I will undermine Trump and the Right-Wing Media Machine in every way I can.

And I ask that you join me.

So my message of hope is simply this: It's never truly over if we decide it isn't over.

One way or another, we will find a way to bitch-slap this mass delusion called Trumpism into the dustbin of history. Where it belongs.

Truth! Above! All!

(But I'll also have a go-bag packed, just in case.)

Eric

**

The Truth About Voter Fraud

Here's the truth about voter fraud:

It happens.

In every election which has ever been done in the history of democracy, there has always been a small percentage of error, and a few bad actors who try gaming the system. Because, whenever you get tens of millions of people doing the same thing all at once, there's going to be some screw-ups, as well as some who try to cut corners.

No problem if there's a clear winner. But when the election is close, it can cause massive problems.

But here's the part we all need to remember: Comparatively speaking, 2020 had some of the lowest rates of error or malfeasance in the measurable (and measured) history of elections.

Yet many people came to the conclusion that the 2020 election had the most fraud out of any recent presidential election. Why the disparity? Because in 2020 the entire electoral process had a proverbial proctological scope jammed up its ass! People were constantly looking for any little thing that might be wrong, and every little thing that was inevitably found, legitimate or not (more often not), got immediately reported before any fact-checking was done, and blown way, WAY out of proportion.

The same thing is undoubtedly about to happen again. Especially with the Right-Wing Media Machine being stronger than ever. You have been warned.

That means two things:

1) Trumpists are going to again lose their shit over every little complaint.

2) There will likely be even less error and fraud in this election than there was in 2020 as a direct result.

So let's all just relax take a deep breath, here! Or count to ten. Or take a Benzo. Or do whatever it takes to calm down.

When the vote totals come in tonight, we all need to remember that we're NOT watching four quarters of a playoff game where two teams are scoring on each other, and if one team makes a sudden, last-minute comeback, it makes the other side feel cheated and start bitching about the officiating. That's NOT what's happening, here! And if you're taking that approach at an election watch party, you have the wrong attitude. The final score has already been made! The game is over, and the winner has already been determined. The only thing that's happening is the final score being tallied and slowly reported as a running total.

So when you see a "blue shift," as absentee and mail-in ballots are counted, don't assume there's some sort of shenanigans going on. This is just how counting works.

And I know counting. I'm an accountant. It's boring work and when you're done, somebody always wants to bitch about the result, no matter how accurate.

So, everybody, chill the fuck out. As Adam Conover recently said, "I'm not worried about the election, because worry is a useless emotion." Instead of worrying, get out there and DO something.

Because your influence doesn't begin and end with a vote.

It begins when you get involved. When you volunteer. When you use your hands. When you use your brain. When you give your heart to the community. When you actively work to make the change you want to see.

Let's do that instead of stressing out.

See you on the other side of the election, folks!

Eric

**

If Trump Wins... (a.k.a. The Final Guardrail)

I'm on record as predicting Kamala Harris will win. The surprise polling in Iowa shows that many assumptions pollsters have been making might well be wrong. There's also the X factors of the secret women's vote, the youth vote (which is almost impossible to poll because young people simply do not talk to pollsters, but remember the "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!" gaff?), or the turncoat Republican vote, or the pissed-off Latino vote. We also have heard that many "polls" are garbage, designed to largely paint a rosier picture for Trump. I'm cautiously optimistic. 

Still, even if the polling is wrong, and Harris actually leads by a decent percentage, it remains undeniably (and inexplicably) close in this election. IF Trump wins (perish the thought), what do we do? What's going to happen? I'm going to explore that dark thought in this blog post. I'm sad to say it, but if Trump wins, there is only ONE guardrail remaining which can stop him.

One.

But we'll get to that in a minute.

First, let's have a glimpse into the future which MIGHT be, should Trump actually pull off the improbable tiebreaker. Or worse, succeeds in swindling the election process.

First (and nobody disputes this), he will pardon himself and get rid of any federal cases pending against him.

He will then almost certainly target Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and Judge Juan Merchan for retribution regarding his 34 convictions of fraud. He will find a way.

He will then bring manufactured lawsuits for ridiculous charges against any and all Republicans and former members of his staff who turned on him, and do everything in his power to destroy their careers. Or worse.

There will then be legal reprisals upon all sorts of people as Trump turns the Attorney General's office upon any other people he considers his enemies.

He will inevitably hand over much of Ukraine to Russia. Perhaps by declaring all territory Russia has gained so far to be the new Russian border. He will also likely defund all Ukrainian support completely and allow Russia to make a surge into the country afterward to take over the entire country, not entirely unlike Hitler with the Sudatenland and Czechoslovakia.

That will be shocking enough. But there's more. Next will come the shock of betrayal among those who voted for him.

Muslims in Michigan who voted for Trump or stayed home because Harris was too much of a "squish" when it came to opposing the awful ethnic cleansing in Gaza will find themselves shocked and betrayed when, under Trump, Netenyahu begins bombing Gaza even more while settlements are brought back in and bombed-out buildings are transformed by Jared Kushner into prime real estate.

Young black men who voted for Trump because they couldn't bring themselves to trust Harris find themselves shocked and betrayed as racial profiling, "stop and frisk," and marijuana prohibition are reinstated, and many of them get hauled off to jail for minor offenses.

Yes, JAIL! And they voted FOR it!

Young Latino men who voted for Trump because they were convinced Harris was a Castro-like Communist find themselves shocked and betrayed as their green cards get rescinded and they are deported based on their racial identity despite their legal documentation. Yeah, we all saw THAT one coming.

Economy voters who felt Trump would do better with the economy are shocked and betrayed as huge tariffs are levied everywhere, prices skyrocket, manufacturing drops, and Trump resorts to massive deficit spending to try and cover it all up - just like he did last time when his trade war with China failed.

Christians are the only ones who do not feel betrayed -- at first. The final destruction of Church/State separation takes place, forcing institutionalized prayer into public schools and instituting Christianity as the only official religion, while declaring all other creeds illegal. BUT THEN, these Christians wake up and realize they've been utterly betrayed when the inevitable internal fight begins among various Christian factions to determine which form of Christianity is the "true" or "legal" version. Oh, the irony!

And all this is just the beginning of the nightmare.

RFK Jr. becomes Surgeon General? Yeesh!

Elon Musk gets a cabinet post? Ugh!

There will then be an all-out assault on Obamacare. Don't think so? There certainly was one last time. Were it not for John McCain, it would have succeeded!

The U.S. will likely pull out of NATO. Especially if NATO panics over Ukraine being handed over to Putin as an "election gift" in gratitude for Putin's cyber-support of Trump's campaign. Putin will be elated, Western democracies will be horrified, and that's all the excuse Trump will need.

And all that is before the final guardrail comes into play.

And what IS that final guardrail? Wait and see...

With huge tariffs causing economic collapse, and Trump doing massive deficit spending (his one talent) to cover up the entire mess, the dollar collapses. What happens then? Why, Trump turns to crypto-currency in a desperate attempt to re-invent the American monetary system. He has already hinted at doing this, so it should come as a surprise to no one. Naturally, this all devolves into utter chaos.

And at this point, he suspends the Constitution and declares Martial Law.

Here at last, is the final guardrail. In such a scenario, the unwillingness to capitulate, exercised by the freedom-loving public, is the only thing that keeps Trump from stealing it all. And in such a scenario of chaos, many state governments will refuse to bend the knee.

Which ones? Well, Certainly, the Pacific Coast (California, Washington and Oregon) and New England (New York, New Jersey, and almost everything north of Virginia) would refuse to cooperate. Illinois and Minnesota would certainly refuse, and with them would probably go Wisconsin and Michigan. Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania might remain on the fence, but even they know totalitarianism when they see it. Nevada? No way. And so go also New Mexico, Colorado, and maybe, if we're lucky, Arizona. There might even be some surprises among the defectors, such as Iowa or Nebraska.

And then what? Civil war?

Perhaps. Perhaps not. There will certainly be a grab to retain certain military assets within blue states. Such as Annapolis Naval Base in Maryland, Great Lakes Naval Base in Illinois, the various military stations in California and New Mexico, etc. And Trump will want loyalist Generals and Admirals to take his side.

I dare say most will not. But there are some. This too, is part of the final guardrail.

Canada, Europe, and all freedom loving democracies will side with the blue secessionist states. They will provide financial and, if necessary, military support. Trump will realize this, and even his madness will be given pause. There will also be many within MAGA who will say, "Screw the blue states! Let 'em go!" And that too, is an unintentional final guardrail.

In which case, the Civil War 2.0 will be over without firing a shot.

There is even an outside chance that Texas decides to secede, on the general principle of wanting to determine its own future in the midst of all this chaos.

I really hope none of this happens. But in the event of a Trump victory, I think it's very probable. And in such a scenario, the unwillingness of the American people to capitulate to a dictator is the final guardrail, the ONE thing that could keep our democracy intact. What's left of it, that is.

And bear in mind, if Trump dies in office (and if he wins, he will never leave, meaning he must inevitably die in office) that means someone worse, like J.D. Vance, will take over.

Don't fear the one who thinks he's Moses. Fear the one who thinks he's Joshua. Because Joshua did all the conquering.

I really hope none of this happens. Honestly, it sounds like one of my crazy science fiction plots. But if it does, don't say I didn't warn you.

Eric

**

IF Kamala Loses...

I predict Kamala Harris will win this Tuesday. It may be close, but if the secret wives' vote comes through, she will. Or if the secret Republican vote comes through, she will. Or if the insulted Latino vote comes through, she will. Or if the late-breaking undecideds come through for her (and numbers show they are at roughly 2-to-1 in her favor), she will. I dare say all four of these will factor in to a Harris victory. She may even sweep all the swing states. (I would be pleasantly surprised at that, but it's entirely possible.)

But as I've repeatedly said on this blog, IT SHOULD NOT BE THIS CLOSE! In a sane world, this should be a slam-dunk. There shouldn't be any competition between a competent woman, and a 1) convicted criminal, 2) sexual assaulter, 3) demonstrable racist, 4) repeated business failure, and 5) proven charlatan who is 6) clearly starting to lose his mind.

So IF Kamala Harris loses (and that's a big IF), it will be for a whole host of reasons. But it will NOT be for the reasons a lot of news pundits will undoubtedly claim.

It will NOT be because she went with Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro as her vice presidential nominee.

It will NOT be because she didn't sufficiently distance herself from Biden when Oprah gave her the softball-question-opportunity to do so.

It will NOT be because she is eloquent within the talking points but less so when handed a question she's unprepared for.

It will NOT be due to her record as Attorney General for California, or the false claim that she was named some sort of "Border Czar."

No. HELL, no! Here are the REAL reasons:

It will be because the Right-Wing Media Machine started to go off the rails under George W. Bush after 9/11, and raged unchecked for decades, until it spiraled so wildly out of control that when it came time to report regarding a race between the worst, most racist, most criminal charlatan that we've ever seen in politics, and (again) a highly competent woman, the machine actually went full-throated in favor of the CRIMINAL!

It will be because nobody heeded MY warnings about this Right-Wing Media Machine/Cult. People failed to heed me when I warned them about it in November of 2010.

And again in February of 2011.

And again in April of 2015.

And again in November of 2016.

And again in October of 2020.

And again in November of 2020.

And again in January of 2022.

(And those are just a small sample of the many warnings I gave.)

No, they would rather have listened to the disgraced likes of Tucker Carlson and Art Jones. (?!?!)

It will be because Barack Obama wasted eight years' worth of opportunity to stop this Right-Wing Media Machine. Oh, yes! I'll call Obama out on this one! He could have restored the Fairness Doctrine and prevented all this crap. In fact, he did the exact opposite! On August 22, 2011, in response to Obama's own executive order directing a "government-wide review of regulations already on the books" to eliminate unnecessary regulations, the FCC voted to remove the rule that implemented the fairness doctrine, along with more than 80 other rules and regulations, from the Federal Register. Hell, Obama could have simply left the remaining shards of the Fairness Doctrine alone and blunted what was to come! He didn't. Maybe he was trying to throw the right-wing media off of him with that move. If so, not only didn't it work, it ruined us all, too. Yes, hindsight is always 20/20, but I said then, and still say now, that our beloved Barry committed a colossal fuck-up with that one!

It will be because Joe Biden wasted four more years failing to deal with our nation's #1 problem of disinformation, which by this point was beyond obvious. Why did he do nothing? Why does a crooked moron like Lewis DeJoy still have a job as Postmaster General during a time in which mail-in voting is so very crucial? Why did we fuck around?

It will be because four years of Trump seemed to give legitimacy to all the right-wing craziness being bandied about on social media, to say nothing of biased appointment to various offices (some of which still stand!) and hideously biased press briefings by the likes of Kayleigh McEnany and Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

And we again did nothing afterward.

It will be because social media outlets such as Twitter/X were allowed to be bought out and turned into the equivalent of 4chan or 8kun.

It will be because Russian disinformation campaigns have been allowed to run rampant through American media.

It will be because our news outlets have been bought out by billionaire oligarchs who interfere with the journalistic process to make sure that their biases are endorsed over the truth, as outlets such as the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times have their endorsements of Kamala Harris blocked by their interfering owners.

It will be because hedge funds have systematically bought up our nation's newspapers and dismantled them, firing most staff and leaving behind bare-bones operations that barely even cover sports.

It will be because most A.M. news stations and even many local television news programs have been bought out by oligarchic interests.

It will be because too many voters on the political left couldn't bring themselves to hold their nose and vote for Hillary in 2016. In an overreaction to Bernie Sanders not being named the candidate, they preferred to cast a protest vote for Jill Stein instead. (And then actually dared to protest Trump's election afterward!) Thus allowing nearly all of the above items to take place. (That one's on us, folks!)

It will be because of the horrifying Citizens' United SCOTUS ruling in 2010, which wrongly equated money with free speech.

It will be because Bill Clinton allowed oligarchs to take over the news media with his horrible Telecommunications Act of 1996.

It will be because the Supreme Court threw the 2000 election to George W. Bush on a 5 to 4 vote, thus making literally all the above possible.

It will be because Ronald Reagan first dismantled the Fairness Doctrine in 1987, creating a watershed effect which we are still reeling from today.

It will be because of all this and more. WE let this happen! WE dropped the ball over, and over, and over again. We let this monster grow and grow until it became an absolute dragon. The death-spiral of our nation's democracy has come down to this: We failed to address the one, biggest threat which has been boiling up for decades upon decades. We failed to require that our news be objective. We failed to address the lies.

And if we win on Tuesday and waste another four years not addressing this #1 concern, then I'll have no choice but to quit the Democratic Party entirely and do something utterly drastic. I'm not sure what, but fuck this shit!

Still, I can afford to be cautiously optimistic. For now.

Eric

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Jon Stewart Is Just Plain Wrong

I love Jon Stewart.

Over the years on The Daily Show and other projects, his wit and humor have sustained me through some dark times -- when certain people's stubborn adherence to the Right-Wing Media Machine has come close to driving me into deep depression. I'm so very grateful to him, and remain a devoted fan.

But on Monday night, he really stepped in it.

Stewart has returned to The Daily Show as an occasional, usually-once-per-week host. And having him return to his old venue, in this trying time where we are actually on the brink of throwing democracy away permanently, is a breath of fresh air to a drowning man. Still, brilliance is no guarantee against being dead wrong, and Stewart demonstrated that spectacularly.

How? By actually defending Tony Hinchcliffe!

In his opening monologue, he said of Hinchcliffe's MSG performance, "Now obviously in retrospect, having a roast comedian come to a political rally a week before election day and roasting a key voting demographic, probably not the best decision by the campaign politically. But to be fair, the guy’s really just doing what he does."

Yeah. What he does is throw an entire race under the bus.

Understatement much, Jon?

Stewart then proceeded to play some clips of Hinchcliffe roasting other people, like Tom Brady. And those jokes, unsurprisingly, are every bit as tasteless and over-the-line as the ones he gave in New York on Sunday.

"There’s something wrong with me," Stewart admitted. "I find that guy very funny. I’m sorry, I don’t know what to tell you."

Well, I know what to tell you, Mr. Stewart. Stop making excuses for the moron that just handed us the salvation of democracy on a silver platter! What, are you trying to get us all killed?! You idiot!

Now, after I've calmed down a bit and my blood pressure's returned to normal, I do get it, somewhat. Comedians like to defend other comedians, even and especially if they just self-destructed on stage. It's a kind of brotherhood among all those who have bombed at least a few times in their career.

And maybe, just maybe, in certain situations, Hinchcliffe's routine might actually have been objectively funny. Like at a White House Correspondents' Dinner, or maybe an awards show. Or at a "Roast of Puerto Rican Culture" event (as if any such thing could ever exist).

But to ruthlessly roast the next-largest voting block after white people, en masse, during what was ostensibly a campaign rally, in a critically close election? Come on!

There's no excuse for that, no matter what Jon Stewart says. And I think deep down he knows that, which is why he admitted, "There's something wrong with me."

And Stewart rightly points out that Trump's comments at the MSG rally were far worse. But that has never moved people before. Why should it now? You see, Hinchcliffe is NOT Trump, and that's what makes this scandal stick to him. It's not that Trump laughed at the jokes and refused to apologize for them afterward, but that everyone there laughed too (except, I'm sure, the stunned Latino voters) and refused to apologize. Even Hinchcliffe himself doubled down.

It was a huge, undeniably racist shit-show that should give all Latino voters pause. Then shock, anger, realization, fear, and finally, a whole bevy of changed votes against Trump.

Stewart wasn't wrong about one thing: there is something wrong with him. If his first instinct is to find excuses for this, the epitome of the inexcusable political gaff, then maybe he's lost touch and needs to retire from the Daily Show again.

Sorry, Jon. I love ya, but ya done fucked up.

Eric

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