Kavanaugh's Guilt

As an empiricist, I disapprove of jumping to conclusions, or judging someone without sufficient evidence.

At the judicial nomination hearings for Brett Kavanaugh, we got it. I will lay out my reasons for you, and then I think you'll agree that we have enough to prove without a reasonable doubt that Brett Kavanaugh is guilty of sexual assault, and attempted rape, against Christine Blasey Ford. Yes, everybody else is talking about this too, but I don't put something up on this blog unless it's something that I know nobody else is saying, and yet needs desperately to be said.

Christine Ford gave compelling testimony yesterday. She was terrified, and told a harrowing story of a sexual attack in her teenage years which left her convinced at the time that her life was in jeopardy. It's clear to me that she was assaulted, and the trauma it left on her life is well documented over the course of many years. She is a legitimate victim.

Now let's deal with the objections:

Could she be paid off to give damaging testimony? If so, that would have to be one whopper of a payout! For her to go through the kind of fish-bowl and death-threat nightmare that has been her life over the last two weeks? I don't know about you, but it would take at least several million to persuade me to go through something like that. But that much money leaves a green paper-trail, and Republicans have failed to produce one. With no evidence of a payout, the argument that she's being paid is worthless. And the testimony she gave is hardly concocted. No amount of payoff can go back in time years ago and make appointments with trauma therapists and tearful confessions to husbands. She WAS attacked!

The question is, by whom?

Brett Kavanaugh is the man Christine Ford directly names as the failed rapist. So the only defense Kavanaugh has to establish his innocence is, logically, to show that her attacker is actually someone else. Could this be a case of mistaken identity?

From the outset, I find this to be a stretch. Even with a classmate who looks similar, time spent in school familiarizes all classmates with those subtle differences in appearance, sound of voice, tallness, stoutness, hairstyle, freckles... We can all think of two of our own high school classmates who looked remarkably alike, and none of us would be fooled if we'd seen one of the two did something wild at a party. Add to this the memory-deepening aspect of trauma, where fear for one's life sears the event deeply into one's psyche so that it's impossible to forget the face that got right up in yours, the feel of the hand that covered your mouth, the subtleties like shape of nose, deepness of pores, smell of breath, etc. So no, mistaken identity does not seem like a credible hypothesis. And after the event, Brett and Christine would have occasionally seen each other in the hallways, in front of their lockers, between classes or even in class, and the occasional look, glance, or even simply not speaking to each other would confirm completely who the person was on that given night, drunk or not. No, Christine knows damned well it was Kavanaugh.

But let's shake this tree for all it's worth, shall we? Let's take the wildest conspiracy theory the ultra-Right-wingnuts can throw at us. The best of them is one put forth by Ed Whelan, the president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center - a conservative think tank. Whelan claimed in a series of Tweets (now withdrawn) that Brett Kavanaugh and another classmate named Chris Garrett look remarkably alike, and that it was Garrett who likely hosted the party in question and probably attacked Christine Blasey Ford. Hey, I'm not afraid to show the images. Here are the high school photos of Kavanaugh and Garrett:

They look alike at first, until you look at them for a while and realize that they aren't so similar once you get to really know the faces. Add to that the 4 years or more spent around these two in high school and/or even junior high school to boot, and you know that there can be no mistaking one for the other, even with alcohol involved, especially given ultra-close face-to-face proximity.

Ed Whelan's wild hypothesis may have cost him his career, according to Politico. He has taken a "leave of absence" for posting this wild conspiracy theory which may have implicated an innocent man, namely Chris Garrett. Although he pulled up short of outright claiming that Garrett was the culprit, it was still an inexcusable publicity stunt, unworthy of any lawyer, and even if the EPPC doesn't fire him, he's likely to be disbarred.

That hasn't kept the ultra-Right from seizing this story and running with it. This particular conspiracy theory is currently being kept alive on a blog called the Gateway Pundit, whose tagline is: "We report the truth - and leave the Russian-collusion fairy tale to the Conspiracy media."

Um - yeah.

What really buries this is Kavanaugh himself. When asked if he would want the FBI to investigate this matter, he repeatedly dodged, and it was clear that the answer was no. He doesn't want the FBI to investigate. Were he innocent, and Garrett the actual culprit, the FBI would quickly establish this and exonerate Kavanaugh! Why in hell would he not want this? The answer should be obvious.

Lastly, there's Kavanaugh's testimony itself. His reaction was hot-headed, irrational, and belligerent. He said this was a revenge-play against President Trump, as if it weren't obvious that Samuel Alito never went through this particular ringer. At BEST, he is a man who can't keep his cool under fire and loses his temper in the spotlight. At worst (and I find this far more likely), he's trying to over-compensate with a Trump-like fire-and-brimstone response that plays to the base of the ultra-Right. Someone probably coached Kavanaugh to come out swinging like Clarence Thomas did after the testimony of Anita Hill. The difference this time is that Kavanaugh does not have (yes, I'll say it) the benefit of being black. Thus, his belligerence comes off as the desperation of a cornered bully instead of the protests of an innocent man.

Methinks the man doth protest too much.

During a tearful moment in which he described saying prayers with his 10 year-old daughter, he talked of his daughter saying, "We should pray for the woman," meaning Ford. Kavanaugh choked up when he said, "That's a lot of wisdom from a ten-year-old."

Yes it is! Because the look on his face when he told that story is what poker players would call a "tell!" It's a look I've seen on sexual predators before. (Don't ask me how I know, it's painful.) Kavanaugh was not solely choked up with paternal pride in a compassionate daughter. He was also emotionally overcome with the knowledge that, at some level, his daughter knows. Or will.

He did it, the fucking bastard!

No, that's not scientific. Yes, it's a subtlety that I'm basing a final judgment on. But it's the last reason I have after all the other evidence I've cited above has been weighed. The last nail in the coffin may be rusty, but so what?

The real issue is, therefore, not that he did it, but that he perjured the living hell out of himself afterward! He shat where he eats, and then dared to blame the Democrats for the stink at his meal! This disqualifies the son-of-a-bitch from sitting in judgment over a game show panel, much less the Supreme Court! I remember when perjuring was enough to get an impeachment vote on President Bill Clinton. Now, apparently, it's not enough to block one judge.

After this, if we can't even get two Republicans to abandon this asshole and vote him down, we deserve to lose our nation.

Eric

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