If Trump Wins... (a.k.a. The Final Guardrail)

I'm on record as predicting Kamala Harris will win. The surprise polling in Iowa shows that many assumptions pollsters have been making might well be wrong. There's also the X factors of the secret women's vote, the youth vote (which is almost impossible to poll because young people simply do not talk to pollsters, but remember the "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!" gaff?), or the turncoat Republican vote, or the pissed-off Latino vote. We also have heard that many "polls" are garbage, designed to largely paint a rosier picture for Trump. I'm cautiously optimistic. 

Still, even if the polling is wrong, and Harris actually leads by a decent percentage, it remains undeniably (and inexplicably) close in this election. IF Trump wins (perish the thought), what do we do? What's going to happen? I'm going to explore that dark thought in this blog post. I'm sad to say it, but if Trump wins, there is only ONE guardrail remaining which can stop him.

One.

But we'll get to that in a minute.

First, let's have a glimpse into the future which MIGHT be, should Trump actually pull off the improbable tiebreaker. Or worse, succeeds in swindling the election process.

First (and nobody disputes this), he will pardon himself and get rid of any federal cases pending against him.

He will then almost certainly target Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and Judge Juan Merchan for retribution regarding his 34 convictions of fraud. He will find a way.

He will then bring manufactured lawsuits for ridiculous charges against any and all Republicans and former members of his staff who turned on him, and do everything in his power to destroy their careers. Or worse.

There will then be legal reprisals upon all sorts of people as Trump turns the Attorney General's office upon any other people he considers his enemies.

He will inevitably hand over much of Ukraine to Russia. Perhaps by declaring all territory Russia has gained so far to be the new Russian border. He will also likely defund all Ukrainian support completely and allow Russia to make a surge into the country afterward to take over the entire country, not entirely unlike Hitler with the Sudatenland and Czechoslovakia.

That will be shocking enough. But there's more. Next will come the shock of betrayal among those who voted for him.

Muslims in Michigan who voted for Trump or stayed home because Harris was too much of a "squish" when it came to opposing the awful ethnic cleansing in Gaza will find themselves shocked and betrayed when, under Trump, Netenyahu begins bombing Gaza even more while settlements are brought back in and bombed-out buildings are transformed by Jared Kushner into prime real estate.

Young black men who voted for Trump because they couldn't bring themselves to trust Harris find themselves shocked and betrayed as racial profiling, "stop and frisk," and marijuana prohibition are reinstated, and many of them get hauled off to jail for minor offenses.

Yes, JAIL! And they voted FOR it!

Young Latino men who voted for Trump because they were convinced Harris was a Castro-like Communist find themselves shocked and betrayed as their green cards get rescinded and they are deported based on their racial identity despite their legal documentation. Yeah, we all saw THAT one coming.

Economy voters who felt Trump would do better with the economy are shocked and betrayed as huge tariffs are levied everywhere, prices skyrocket, manufacturing drops, and Trump resorts to massive deficit spending to try and cover it all up - just like he did last time when his trade war with China failed.

Christians are the only ones who do not feel betrayed -- at first. The final destruction of Church/State separation takes place, forcing institutionalized prayer into public schools and instituting Christianity as the only official religion, while declaring all other creeds illegal. BUT THEN, these Christians wake up and realize they've been utterly betrayed when the inevitable internal fight begins among various Christian factions to determine which form of Christianity is the "true" or "legal" version. Oh, the irony!

And all this is just the beginning of the nightmare.

RFK Jr. becomes Surgeon General? Yeesh!

Elon Musk gets a cabinet post? Ugh!

There will then be an all-out assault on Obamacare. Don't think so? There certainly was one last time. Were it not for John McCain, it would have succeeded!

The U.S. will likely pull out of NATO. Especially if NATO panics over Ukraine being handed over to Putin as an "election gift" in gratitude for Putin's cyber-support of Trump's campaign. Putin will be elated, Western democracies will be horrified, and that's all the excuse Trump will need.

And all that is before the final guardrail comes into play.

And what IS that final guardrail? Wait and see...

With huge tariffs causing economic collapse, and Trump doing massive deficit spending (his one talent) to cover up the entire mess, the dollar collapses. What happens then? Why, Trump turns to crypto-currency in a desperate attempt to re-invent the American monetary system. He has already hinted at doing this, so it should come as a surprise to no one. Naturally, this all devolves into utter chaos.

And at this point, he suspends the Constitution and declares Martial Law.

Here at last, is the final guardrail. In such a scenario, the unwillingness to capitulate, exercised by the freedom-loving public, is the only thing that keeps Trump from stealing it all. And in such a scenario of chaos, many state governments will refuse to bend the knee.

Which ones? Well, Certainly, the Pacific Coast (California, Washington and Oregon) and New England (New York, New Jersey, and almost everything north of Virginia) would refuse to cooperate. Illinois and Minnesota would certainly refuse, and with them would probably go Wisconsin and Michigan. Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania might remain on the fence, but even they know totalitarianism when they see it. Nevada? No way. And so go also New Mexico, Colorado, and maybe, if we're lucky, Arizona. There might even be some surprises among the defectors, such as Iowa or Nebraska.

And then what? Civil war?

Perhaps. Perhaps not. There will certainly be a grab to retain certain military assets within blue states. Such as Annapolis Naval Base in Maryland, Great Lakes Naval Base in Illinois, the various military stations in California and New Mexico, etc. And Trump will want loyalist Generals and Admirals to take his side.

I dare say most will not. But there are some. This too, is part of the final guardrail.

Canada, Europe, and all freedom loving democracies will side with the blue secessionist states. They will provide financial and, if necessary, military support. Trump will realize this, and even his madness will be given pause. There will also be many within MAGA who will say, "Screw the blue states! Let 'em go!" And that too, is an unintentional final guardrail.

In which case, the Civil War 2.0 will be over without firing a shot.

There is even an outside chance that Texas decides to secede, on the general principle of wanting to determine its own future in the midst of all this chaos.

I really hope none of this happens. But in the event of a Trump victory, I think it's very probable. And in such a scenario, the unwillingness of the American people to capitulate to a dictator is the final guardrail, the ONE thing that could keep our democracy intact. What's left of it, that is.

And bear in mind, if Trump dies in office (and if he wins, he will never leave, meaning he must inevitably die in office) that means someone worse, like J.D. Vance, will take over.

Don't fear the one who thinks he's Moses. Fear the one who thinks he's Joshua. Because Joshua did all the conquering.

I really hope none of this happens. Honestly, it sounds like one of my crazy science fiction plots. But if it does, don't say I didn't warn you.

Eric

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