Thursday, September 10, 2015

Daniel Pipes Confirms My Iran Analysis!

Sometimes, other brilliant people confirm the brilliant things I say on this blog. Such as Daniel Pipes. For those who aren't aware who this guy is, let me give a little background: Dan Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum, a conservative think-tank that promotes American interests in the Middle East. Unlike most conservative hawks, Pipes is at least an expert on the cultures of the region, and knows a thing or two outside the five second sound-byte.

And what does he agree with me on? Why, he agrees with me on the Iran deal! No, he doesn't agree that the deal is a good thing. In fact, he's quite staunchly opposed to it. But he does agree that the deal paves the way for a potential Arab Spring event within Iran, something I previously argued on this blog way back in May, when I called for the 47 U.S. Senators who sent a letter to Iran to be impeached for treason. I also briefly made this argument in April on the Sacred Cow Wursthaus Podcast for April 4th. You can read the Daniel Pipes blog post here for comparison.

Now, Pipes is a conservative hawk. He wants democracy for all the nations of the Middle East. He simply thinks that the best way to achieve this is by outright warfare and/or overthrowing the governments covertly. He also feels that Islamic culture is not ready to instill such democracy itself because Islamic religious extremism stands in the way. But democracy cannot be imposed from the outside. It must be earned from within. We learned that the hard way after World War II, and not just with the conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Democracy must be earned from the inside. Fortunately, we have many people inside Iran, citizens of that great Persian culture, who are highly educated, who love the West, and who desire democracy themselves. Back in 2010, they nearly revolted against their government. With the United States no longer their looming enemy, they are more likely to do so again. After all, the government is now their only enemy, aside from the possibility of a preventative strike by Israel.

In my original blog post, I cited another expert on Iran named Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, who essentially argued the same point. (There was much more to his talk, but that was the essence of it.) Again, I include his speech at TED here for comparison.

Isn't it interesting when people on the left and the right, having nothing in common except an intimate knowledge of Iran's people and culture, both come to the same conclusions? Other people making this same point include Iranian-Americans, such as noted comedian Maz Jobrani. These people of Iranian descent are split regarding the deal themselves, but they all agree that it gives Iran a better chance at democracy than no deal at all. The chance for democratic revolution is agreed upon by both sides, pro and con. The only difference is that Pipes thinks it's merely a silver lining, and Bruce De Mesquita and I think it's the whole damned point!

And by the way, that's why those 47 Senators should still be impeached and tried for treason! Not only have they betrayed democracy in the U.S., they've betrayed it in Iran as well.



P.S. For those who really want to know about this debate, there is an Intelligence Squared session in which those in favor argued directly with those opposed. Experts on both sides duke it out over the issue, leaving neither side convinced, but all of us who watched better informed. You can watch the debate here. (And I strongly suggest you do so!)

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