For some time now, both on this blog and on social media, I have been sharply criticizing President Trump for his shoddy job in preparing for the Covid-19 pandemic. The evidence that I cited was, and still is, Trump's own words, when he bellowed his irresponsible behavior at the top of his lungs throughout all of January and February. But I have constantly heard objections to this, saying, essentially, "Aw, come on! This virus affected the whole WORLD! How can you blame Trump when so many other countries have been unable to stem the spread of this virus as well?
Well, to answer that point, I tried to find some charts which showed the numbers. But I was frustrated in what I found. Most charts showed the spread of the virus based on calendar date, and that's not what I wanted. Some countries became infected much later than others, and so calendar date jumbled the lines up so that a clear pattern wasn't readily visible. What I wanted was a chart which compared the spread of the virus from the date of onset forward. In other words, if the first incident marks Day #1, how many cases and/or deaths took place from that point onward?
So, unable to find many charts with such a "like to like" analysis, or if found, were horribly out of date, I decided to make some of my own. Hell, being an accountant, I've worked with spreadsheets all the time. It was really not difficult to crunch the numbers and give you all out there a chart which was very useful.
What I expected to find was a graph which showed Trump's inaction and ineptitude clearly visible in a line which showed a sharp spike upward very, very early. But as you'll see, what I actually found was even more surprising.
NOTE: All numbers shown here are up to date through yesterday, April 27th. The source of my numbers was ourworlddata.org.
First, I made a chart to show the running total of deaths, each day, beginning at onset of death #1 from coronavirus. Here's what I found:
As you can see, when one compares the number of daily deaths from Covid-19 on a "day 1 to day 1" analysis, one can see that other nations actually did a poorer job of containing the virus initially than the United states did. The orange line is Australia. The blue one, Italy, and the light blue one is the U.K. The dark yellow line is France. I would have expected France to have done a much better job of containing the outbreak, but apparently I was wrong. Everyone knew that Italy was in a bad way with Covid-19, but I had no idea that France had been hit so hard. Yet even more interestingly, all these lines begin to taper off. They have not yet leveled as of 4/27, but they are beginning to. And the United States? Not even close! After having fewer deaths than Europe and Australia at first, The U.S. started racking up a shameful death toll. This sharp spike upwards manifests in what corresponds to the entire month of April. No signs of tapering off.
In other words, it was not Trump's initial irresponsibility which spread the virus. It was his administration's response afterward which was truly the biggest failure.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of this graph was China, the long, flat grey line. Despite having one of the largest populations in the world, and some of the most densely populated cities, AND having been infected with the virus the longest, the number of deaths flattened out quickly, and stayed relatively flat throughout recent days. China had many failures with regard to initially containing the virus, and lying about it. But afterward, it pulled out all the stops and got the job done. Either that, or they're lying their asses off now about how many have died recently.
Next, I did another "day 1 to day 1" analysis regarding the running total of the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19. The resulting pattern showed something slightly similar, but also starkly different. Check this out:
Again, you can see that the USA (green) has a huge spike upward, and doesn't appear to be flattening out anytime soon. It looks like it started to flatten out just slightly about a week ago, and then spiked back upward at the same rate as before. Undoubtedly this was due to the protests trying to get lockdowns to be lifted prematurely. But again, the real pattern is that the U.S. doesn't have a large initial jump in coronavirus cases. Instead, the spike comes after. In fact, WAY after many other nations began showing lots of cases. Now, this might be due to the fact that the U.S. had so little testing initially. Perhaps the virus was spreading everywhere and we didn't know it because we had no real testing to speak of. Or perhaps Trump restricting travel from China really did have a delaying effect. I suspect it's probably both. But the real impact, as the chart clearly shows, comes well after the virus' arrival. What really hurt the U.S. was a lack of preparation, lack of equipment, and a stubborn refusal to acknowledge the threat as serious until it was far too late.
Oh, and a stubborn refusal by many Trump fans to acknowledge the seriousness of the situation, even now.
Some might argue that it's the United States' size that accounts for the huge spike. Not so, or else China would have a similar spike based on its large population size.
Some highlight should be noted about some of the low numbers I found, and which the reader will not be able to see because the lines are scrunched down near the bottom with so many others.
Japan: Total number of confirmed cases, in spite of being one of the first nations for the virus to reach, only 13,385.
Singapore: Relatively close to China and a major transportation and commercial hub, but total number of deaths? 12! Yes, 12!
New Zealand: Has kept the total number of Covid-19 cases to a mere 1,112.
Mexico: In spite of Trump shutting down all immigration to stop the virus from coming in by Mexicans (and other Latinx immigrants) crossing the border, the total number of confirmed cases in Mexico is only 14,677. That's all time!
Sweden: A lot of attention has been given to Sweden's open policy, and lack of lockdown. According to this, it seems to be true that there is little impact as a result of this policy! 18,640 confirmed cases total, and 2,194 deaths. This may be due to the fact that Sweden is sparsely populated, or due to the colder climate keeping people largely sequestered anyway. Or, perhaps the people of Sweden don't need a government order to act responsible. I suspect all of these factors apply. Whatever the reason, their numbers are legitimately low.
South Korea: The model response! Only 243 deaths and 10,738 confirmed cases!
The United States could have been one of those nations which kept the numbers low. We could have been a model for the world like South Korea or New Zealand. Instead, we're the butt of new and disturbingly accurate jokes. Like this one going around Germany: Q: "What borders on stupidity?" A: "Mexico and Canada!"
You know it's reached apocalyptic proportions when Germans have developed a sense of humor.
So it turns out I was right, but not in the way I thought I would be. I thought the early-on lack of judgement by Trump was largely to blame. But Trump's early inaction and incompetence didn't lead to an early spike. They instead led to a much later spike, and that came largely through the virus being allowed to sneak in the back door, and then spread everywhere before the government really began looking for it. And afterward? When Trump says he's been responding so well? The numbers don't lie. Trump's response to the coronavirus is worse by far than any other world leader, and embarrassingly so! Hospitals ran out of PPE. Ventilators ran short, and then were sent to the wrong areas at the wrong times. States were forced to compete with FEMA for supplies instead of working with FEMA for supplies. Big Trump-fan states like South Dakota refused to shut down, leading to even more outbreaks in Billings and elsewhere.
So, there it is! This isn't just a "whole world" problem. This is a whole world problem which Trump's administration colossally fucked up!
I knew Trump would wreck the economy sooner or later. I just had no idea it would be this bad.
Eric
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