Broker The Convention! (Tara Reade Revisited)

This is a retraction, and an apology.

In my blog post from April 30th, I made the case that Joe Biden was neither forgiven, nor forgivable, merely "passable."

I am now downgrading Joe to "lesser of two evils." And I am openly calling upon the DNC to oust Biden from the ticket, and hold a brokered convention this fall.

What changed my mind?

My own philosophy of following through, and of being open to all the evidence no matter where it leads. As such, I followed through on my research from April 30, and went back to listen to Tara Reade's account of events as she described them on the Katie Halper podcast back in March. It wasn't enough for me to take other people's analysis of what Tara said, I had to hear it for myself. I encourage all of you out there to do the same. You can do so here.

After overcoming Soundcloud's horrible technical problems (it's a bad venue to host a podcast, avoid it at all costs if you want to do a show), I was (finally!) able to listen to the entire interview. I found Tara Reade's account to be thorough, and believable.

Two things from Reade's account stood out to me, and debunked two pieces of evidence I had based my prior conclusion upon. The first was her immediate supervisor, whose name was bleeped out on the Katie Halper show. But Reade repeatedly said that this person was a "she." That, logically, could only mean Marianne Baker, Joe Biden's executive assistant at the time. Biden simply had no other female managers on staff that fit Reade's description. One of the reasons I was dubious about Reade's story was Marianne Baker's insistence that she didn't recall hearing any complaints about sexual harassment from Reade at the time. It was comforting to me that a woman opposed Reade's claims. But according to Tara, when she tried to tell her female supervisor about the sexual harassment incident, she was stopped. The supervisor held up her hand, as if she knew where the conversation was going, and said she didn't want to hear anything more about the details! This not only establishes that this sort of thing had happened in Biden's office before, but that this supervisor knew enough to give herself plausible deniability later on! If I'm right, and this supervisor was indeed Marianne Baker (and who else could it be?), then Baker had an out to be able to say, truthfully, that she did not recall hearing any complaints from Tara Reade. Well of course she didn't! Because she stopped Tara from telling her! This transforms Marianne Baker from a reliable female witness against Reade into a possible co-conspirator, and outright enabler for Biden.

The other piece of evidence was the complaint that Reade filed with the Senate Personnel Office. I took it as a solid piece of evidence that the document could not be found there, and that Tara Reade hadn't kept a copy for herself. But going by her testimony, in the office culture she faced at the time, early 90's, she had every expectation to not be taken seriously in her complaint. She had already been rebuffed by all her superiors, and, after working her way up the chain of command as per protocol, finally filed the complaint pessimistically. She expected the document to be ignored, and therefore didn't keep a copy for herself - she'd already been psychologically beaten down by this point. That's an understandable mistake for a young, 22 year-old woman to make, especially given the climate towards sexual harassment at the time. Furthermore, it was beyond easy for Biden's office to pull a string or two in the old-boy-network and simply make the document disappear in the Senate Personnel Office, or possibly even beyond that. It was wrong of me to presume that missing document to be as weighty a piece of evidence against her as I'd thought. I'd forgotten the old adage, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." It's not evidence of presence, either, but the evidence of presence comes from other sources, including Tara and seven other women with similar complaints.

I also screwed up on my assumptions regarding the timing of Reade's testimony. I assumed she was coming forward because Bernie Sanders was in trouble. But it's equally likely that she came forward because Joe Biden was suddenly a viable candidate again. Biden was so unlikely a victor in the Democratic Primary that it took everyone by surprise when most other candidates bowed out and endorsed Biden between his victory in South Carolina and the following Super Tuesday. It wasn't necessary to come forward if Biden was just going to lose anyway. But then, suddenly, Biden had a miracle comeback! The stakes became much higher, and coming forward became less of an option, and more of a necessary duty.

Reade's account of the "gym bag incident," had a few details which impressed upon me. The first was Joe's remark towards the end of the actual assault, where he said something to the effect of, "I thought you liked me." This implies that Joe was taken with Tara, thought he had a shot, and made a move on her. When she apparently didn't reciprocate romantically, he acted surprised. The second thing which impressed upon me was her account of his anger afterwards. "You're nothing to me!" he shouted at her. After the incident, Tara said, it was that remark, of "being nothing," that injured her more than the incident itself. That's not the sort of thing one simply makes up. The third thing that stood out was her recounting how Joe calmed down afterward. He put his hands on her shoulders and said, "You're fine. You're fine." Based on everything we know of Joe Biden, that's exactly the sort of thing he might say in such a situation. He would want to smooth things over - even though he knew he probably couldn't. It's just the sort of detail that doesn't seem concocted, and rings true as genuine.

I said from the beginning that I believed Reade's initial account. Now I know a little bit more about the background, and the whole story rings true. I do believe that Biden mistook Reade's naturally sunny personality and disposition as flirtation. It happens all too often, especially in the workplace. When Joe made a move, and didn't quite get the response he expected, it all backfired on him, and he reacted first with anger, and then reeled his anger back in. It's a story that makes sense to me, and doesn't come into conflict with my impressions of Joe Biden as a person.

But what about the big detail? Did Joe Biden "digitally penetrate" Tara? It still seems out of character for Joe, to my impression, but that's hardly conclusive. The scenarios I can imagine where it does make sense involve how Tara may have actually felt about Biden at first, and it's not fair for me to speculate about that. But one thing is certain with me: it almost doesn't matter. Enough of Tara Reade's story is true that Biden cannot be our nominee going into November. Even if Tara added that little "detail" to her story just to equate her old boss with Trump as much as possible and damage him politically, the bulk of her story rings true, and that's all we need.

I had said previously that Joe Biden is no Brett Kavanaugh. I hold to that conclusion for one simple reason: Biden backed off! Kavanaugh, according to Blasey Ford, did not, and would have followed through on his rape attempt had he been able to get Ford's one-piece swimsuit, which she'd been wearing underneath her clothes, off of her. Donald Trump is also not the type who backs off, based on everything we know about him and his accusers.

That's the real difference between men like Joe Biden, or Al Franken, or Garrison Keillor, and men like Donald Trump, or Harvey Weinstein. The Bidens and Frankens of the world back off after crossing the line. Even if they don't apologize, or give a non-apology apology, they back off! Men like Trump or Weinstein cross the line, make their bed on that side of the line, and then shit on the bed after they're done!

That's the real reason I'll gladly vote for Biden over Trump, if I'm left with no other choice.

But I'll not do so happily. Biden is not our ideal candidate. He's slipping mentally, and it's getting rather obvious. Even if he manages to hold his marbles together past November, how long will he be able to afterwards? It's a good bet he won't last four years, in my opinion. This horse is too old to hitch a wagon to anymore.

In the long run, it might not even matter. Biden's critics took a huge hit this weekend. Biden strongly refuted Reade's claims on Morning Joe last Friday, and allegations regarding Eva Murray (Christine O'Donnel's niece) turned out to be proven false. Fox News seems to have backed off on the Tara Reade story somewhat as a result. Biden is not to be underestimated. He led the entire Democratic pack of candidates nearly the entire time. His poll numbers hovered around 29% consistently and never dipped below 16%, even at his lowest point following his loss in New Hampshire. And if he beats Donald Trump in November, it will certainly help to beat Trumpism - which is the real goal. But let's not pretend that Trump fans are not chomping at the bit to see Biden on the debate stage with Trump. They're looking forward to seeing Biden stumbling over his own words and forgetting things as Trump assails him with his lies and hyper-confident hyperbole.

So let's broker the convention! I don't know who will emerge from such a fracas as the new candidate, but it won't be anywhere nearly as bad as handsy Uncle Joe, and that will do just fine. It can't be Bernie Sanders, because a segment of the Democratic block won't vote for him, and a unified ticket is imperative. But Bernie should certainly be in the smoke-filled room that decides on Biden's replacement! It should probably be a woman to undo the damage to the "me too" movement all this has caused, and should be an African-American to smooth over the bruised feelings within the black vote - seeing as how it was they who made Joe the nominee in South Carolina. That might mean Kamala Harris is the pick, or it could mean someone more off the beaten path, like Ayanna Pressley (Democratic Congresswoman from Boston, Mass., and member of "The Squad"). But whoever it is, it will be a better choice overall.

My apologies to all my readers, and my apologies to Tara Reade.

I offer no apologies to the broken nomination process, the voters of South Carolina, or the other candidates who dropped out way too early.


Eric

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