They Don't Believe The Polls!

 By any measure, Joe Biden has a commanding lead right now.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Biden with a 10-point lead. Biden has had a roughly 7-point lead ever since July. And this steadiness is one of the biggest aberrations of any set of polling data we have seen in the modern era. Even Rasmussen, Right-leaning Rasmussen, gave Biden a 12- point lead in its most recent poll. Ordinarily, there are huge swings and much narrower margins. In 2012, Mitt Romney was occasionally seen with a 2-point edge over Obama. In 2016 at this time, Hillary's lead over Trump was only 3 or 4 points. It grew to 6 points after the release of the Access Hollywood Tape, but then crashed down to negative numbers after James Comey announced his re-opening of the email investigation, only 11 days out. States which might never have been dreamed to be in play are potential wins for Biden. Georgia? Iowa? Even Texas is a potential flip for the Democrats now! Biden's lead is so large and so steady, that any sane person on the Republican side should be worried sick.

Instead, what I see is complete denial.

I saw one conservative post an election map which showed his projections for Trump winning big. I shit you not, this clown had Trump Winning not only in various swing states like Arizona, but also solidly blue states like Minnesota and New York! Never mind that polls are showing Biden with a solid lead in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Arizona. Check this stupid shit out:

The post references the "Helmut Norpoth Model." Basically, the Helmut Norpoth Model assumes that if a primary candidate did better in a particular state than the opponent did in his/her primary, that meant the enthusiasm would carry the state for that particular candidate. In other words, better primary numbers mean a better chance at winning. Of course, that's pure horse-shit when one political party already has an incumbent candidate. So projections like the one above, where New York State, of all places, shows red, are completely baseless.

I chimed in, saying that whoever did this particular Electoral College map was smoking crack, and that projections showed both Arizona and my home state of Wisconsin as likely blue.

Believe it or not, I actually got blowback on this! One guy told me that Wisconsin was not even close to being blue because both legislative bodies were Republican. As a lifelong resident of Wisconsin, I told this idiot to not presume what I saw in my own damned back yard, and pointed out that the legislature was still Republican only due to extreme gerrymandering. Another person who was a resident of Arizona was adamant that Arizona would not go blue, and called me an ignorant neanderthal for suggesting otherwise. I hit her with a link to the Real Clear Politics polling average which showed Biden with a clear and steady lead in AZ and nationwide. A bunch more people then jumped on the thread and told me those polls were fake! No joke! They posted links to conservative articles that claimed the polls were being skewed in favor of Democrats in order to discourage people from getting out to vote for Trump. I faithfully read the articles, saw that they had zero evidence to present, and said so! They still refused to accept it.

Okay, I get that the polls shifted so radically in 2016, and so quickly towards the end, that many people believed Hillary had a lead right up to election day. But she did not! Her lead evaporated days before, and polls were showing her behind by 2 or 3 points! James Comey's re-instituion of an investigation into Hillary's emails turned her chances at victory to ash! When James Comey concluded his re-investigation on the Sunday before Election Day and found, yet again, that Hillary was in the clear, I expected a last-minute bounce of 2 or 3 points. But it never came.

Fast forward to today. These people believe that, because they didn't see the actual shift in the polls beforehand last time, that the earlier polls which showed Hillary in the lead must have been fake. They believe this same sort of thing is happening now.

Um, no.

The Helmut Norpoth Model is based on wishful thinking at best. But it's not really about that. The reason so many people are doubting the polls is because the Right-Wing Media Cult is declaring the polls to be fake. This sets the stage for Trump to claim, as we all expect him to, that the election results are invalid, and that he should not leave office. Trump's followers, having been primed to disbelieve the polls for months and months, will buy this garbage and believe Trump won.

Even though every single poll has shown Biden with an incredibly solid lead for almost the entire goddamned year!

A more realistic map emerges when you take the Real Clear Politics average and use that to make a "no toss-up state" election model. This shows Trump losing in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, and even Iowa - all states where Trump is polling behind.

Such an outcome might bitch-slap Trump voters back into reality. But in truth, if reality hasn't bitch-slapped them enough by now, I doubt it will do so again this time.

Which means, after Trump loses, we must vigilantly busy ourselves with making sure he leaves, making sure his supporters do not trash the goddamned place (because they might), and making sure Trump is dragged out by his stupid hair after Biden is sworn in.

Eric

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